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Mesoscale Discussion 156
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
   STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
   EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
   WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
   50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
   700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
   DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
   PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
   WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
               45390142 45760208 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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