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Mesoscale Discussion 157
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0836 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central and north FL and southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30...

   Valid 080236Z - 080430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 30
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The leading convective line of an MCS will track across
   the region through the evening and into the overnight hours. While
   isolated damaging wind gusts may accompany this activity, additional
   Watch issuance is not anticipated. However, portions of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 30 may be locally extended across western parts
   of the FL Peninsula.

   DISCUSSION...A mature leading-line/trailing-stratiform MCS from
   southern GA to northern FL will continue tracking eastward and
   southeastward through the evening and into the overnight hours. The
   most unstable air ahead of this activity extends from the middle
   Gulf to the west-central FL Peninsula, with the 00Z Tampa Bay
   sounding indicating around 800 J/kg of MLCAPE aided by a mean mixing
   ratio around 12 g/kg. As the northern extent of the leading
   convective line continues to ingest less-unstable inflow as sampled
   by the 00Z Jacksonville sounding, the southern flank of the MCS will
   likely become dominant -- with continued forward motion aided by
   propagation. This will allow an isolated damaging-wind risk to
   potentially spread across parts of the western FL Peninsula into the
   overnight hours, and this could be addressed by a local extension of
   the Watch. However, given relatively more stable conditions with
   eastward extent across the FL Peninsula, reinforced by nocturnal
   cooling, the severe risk should tend to lessen with time. As such,
   the issuance of a new Watch is not expected.

   ..Cohen.. 02/08/2017


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28078280 29308257 31188204 31418182 31088150 29488142
               28258165 27678197 27708247 28078280 

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Page last modified: February 08, 2017
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