|Mesoscale Discussion 157|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018
Areas affected...Northern and Central Florida...Southeast Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 201350Z - 201445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Tornado watch is warranted by 15z for much of northern and
central Florida and parts of southeast Georgia.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent is increasing ahead of
short-wave trough over the northeast Gulf. Thunderstorms have
developed within this zone of ascent and have been mostly confined
to offshore regions the last few hours. However, convection is now
intensifying from near DAB to near OCF, with some supercell
structures evident, and other showers are deepening along a
broadening corridor across the northern Peninsula. While stronger
forcing will be delayed across this region there is concern that
deep convection will gradually increase in intensity/coverage such
that a tornado watch may be warranted soon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30058412 31108132 28728031 27778308 30058412
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