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Mesoscale Discussion 157
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

   Areas affected...Northern and Central Florida...Southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 201350Z - 201445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Tornado watch is warranted by 15z for much of northern and
   central Florida and parts of southeast Georgia.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent is increasing ahead of
   short-wave trough over the northeast Gulf. Thunderstorms have
   developed within this zone of ascent and have been mostly confined
   to offshore regions the last few hours. However, convection is now
   intensifying from near DAB to near OCF, with some supercell
   structures evident, and other showers are deepening along a
   broadening corridor across the northern Peninsula. While stronger
   forcing will be delayed across this region there is concern that
   deep convection will gradually increase in intensity/coverage such
   that a tornado watch may be warranted soon.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 03/20/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30058412 31108132 28728031 27778308 30058412 

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