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Mesoscale Discussion 158
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF SRN/ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33...

   VALID 010343Z - 010515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A QLCS SHIFTS EAST FROM CNTRL INTO ERN OK AND
   ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY FORM OVER NERN OK.

   DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1007 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN
   OK ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONT ARCING SW FROM A DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE OVER
   NWRN MO. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL DCVA/HEIGHT
   FALLS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND
   SHOULD AID IN ELEVATED CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVERNIGHT INTO NERN OK
   AS A PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER E-CNTRL OK
   CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED N. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

   FARTHER SW...TSTM BAND ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL TO SWRN OK
   HAD STRUGGLED TO GREATLY INTENSIFY BEYOND A SINGULAR SEVERE WIND
   REPORT. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS STILL OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF
   THIS ACTIVITY AND THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A MODEST INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY
   AND FORWARD PROPAGATION TO THE ESE. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURGING PORTION OF THE COLD
   POOL...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL GENERALLY SUPPORTED ON THE
   TRAILING/WRN FLANK OF CONVECTION BASED ON AN UPSTREAM FEED OF STEEP
   700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 DEG C/KM.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33819776 33939845 34069886 34299931 34669932 34899909
               34819859 34919812 35349731 35809666 36289648 36529665
               36869617 36899576 36919489 36769454 36039447 35509449
               34679503 33889572 33789620 33789718 33819776 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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