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Mesoscale Discussion 158
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
   MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
   BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
   INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
   A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
   FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
   CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
   BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
   MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
   EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
   THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
   HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
   STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
               33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2015
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