MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS - SRN AL - FL PANHANDLE - FAR SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 122317Z - 130015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS IS UNCERTAIN AND A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK IS SEEMINGLY
   BECOME MORE LIMITED IN SPATIAL EXTENT.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS REGARDING THE
   NEED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT
   APPROXIMATELY 40 MI INLAND FROM THE MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE COASTS.  THE
   LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS
   SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MUCH OF THE RECENT TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SRN
   AL HAS MOVED N AND BECOME ELEVATED IN CHARACTER.  AS SUCH...THE
   WEAKLY BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO NEAR THE
   COAST LIMITING THE RESIDENCE TIME FOR STORMS TO MATURE AND INTENSIFY
   FURTHER.  
   
   MODEL GUIDANCE --PARTICULARLY CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS-- ARE
   SUBDUED IN SHOWING VIGOROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS...WHICH SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
   OBSERVATIONS TO THIS POINT.  NONETHELESS...AN UPTICK IN STORM
   STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS STILL POSSIBLE AS A SRN PLAINS
   SPEED MAXIMUM ENCROACHES ON THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  THUS A LOW RISK
   FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS...INCLUDING A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO.
   
   ..SMITH/KERR.. 02/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   30838979 31258824 31318559 31128439 30628413 30038422
               29718502 30308636 30248851 30168975 30838979