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Mesoscale Discussion 159
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0159
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2017

   Areas affected...Nrn Florida and adjacent srn Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082045Z - 082145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development is possible during the
   next couple of hours.  A severe storm or two is possible.  While the
   need for a watch is not currently anticipated, trends will continue
   to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...In the presence of sheared, 30-50 kt westerly lower/mid
   tropospheric wind fields, near surface convergence across much of
   northern Florida appears generally weak.  However, daytime heating
   of a moist boundary layer has contributed to substantive boundary
   layer destabilization, with latest objective analysis suggesting
   mixed layer CAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg inland of the northeast Gulf
   coast.  Aided by forcing associated with warm advection, deepening
   convection is currently evident within a broader arcing zone of
   apparent large-scale ascent.  Although mid/upper support remains
   weak, or unclear, further intensification into at least widely
   scattered vigorous thunderstorms appears possible through 22-23Z. 
   Given the environment, this may include the evolution of one or two
   supercells.  While a tornado may not be completely out of the
   question, large hail and locally strong surface gusts appear the
   primary severe threats.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 02/08/2017


   LAT...LON   30658644 31018508 31328331 31278166 30168125 29258098
               28808200 29308312 29728380 29848501 30058602 30368678

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