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Mesoscale Discussion 160
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2017

   Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...northern Alabama...and far
   northeast Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082102Z - 082300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Surface-based thunderstorms, some becoming severe, should
   develop from north to south across middle Tennessee into northeast
   Mississippi and northern Alabama this afternoon and evening, and
   spread to the east.  Locally strong winds and hail will be the
   primary severe-weather threats.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mesoscale analyses showed an ill-defined low
   pressure area tracking from western into northern middle TN this
   afternoon along a northeast-southwest oriented surface trough. 
   Clearing of earlier clouds across the discussion area allowed for
   destabilization with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg already present in
   middle TN.  A strong 60-70 kt midlevel jet now nosing into the Mid
   South and TN Valley is resulting in bulk shear of 50-60 kt.  Forcing
   for ascent within the exit region of this jet appears to be
   supporting recent elevated storm development across portions of
   western KY into northern middle TN.  Meanwhile, visible satellite
   imagery showed cumulus continuing to develop, expanding in coverage
   across western middle TN with greater vertical development. 
   Surface-based storms are expected to develop within the cumulus
   field as the environment undergoes further destabilization, and
   convection spreads east, with locally strong winds and hail being
   possible with the stronger storms. 19Z HRRR continues to favor this
   scenario for a few sustained storms in middle TN to northeast MS
   developing by 23Z.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 02/08/2017


   LAT...LON   34418577 33968673 33808757 33888821 34088854 34898845
               35488801 36198724 36648657 36568547 36268523 34418577 

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