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Mesoscale Discussion 161
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011621Z - 011745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND
   MIDDLE TN COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL REMAIN POOR ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S
   TO MID 50S F /AT BEST/. BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
   ALLOW FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION /A FEW HUNDRED MUCAPE/ AND STEEPENING
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KT PER
   REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5-7 DEG
   C/KM /AS NOTED IN 12Z BNA RAOB AND REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ AND
   COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL. GIVEN
   THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   ROBUST AND SEVERE HAIL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   EXPECTED ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37748634 37918585 37958550 37928516 37788491 37638473
               37278476 36708486 36258503 35968522 35748550 35548595
               35488656 35528719 35638747 35838750 36188736 36888697
               37408673 37608652 37748634 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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