MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH GA/FAR NORTH FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 130914Z - 131115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A
   TORNADO MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND PERHAPS FAR NORTH FL.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   INCREASING SEVERE THREAT/POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   DISCUSSION...A MODEST UPSWING IN TSTM INTENSITY HAS RECENTLY
   OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA...PERHAPS INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT
   FALLS UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   OZARKS...AFTER A BOUT OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
   THESE STORMS ARE FOCUSED WITHIN A WSW-ENE ORIENTED CORRIDOR
   ALONG/NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...WITH THE STORMS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE
   BOUNDARY OF MORE CONCERN FOR ANY SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK.
   ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT APPRECIABLY SOUTH OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE TIME
   BEING...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
   INTO AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
   
   NEAR/SOUTH OF THE WSW-ENE WARM FRONT...LOWER 70S F TEMPERATURES AND
   UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS
   500-700 J/KG OF MLCAPE FROM FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHERN GA. GIVEN
   THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO MATURE...STRONGLY
   SOUTHWESTERLY/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 40-50 KT
   WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-3 KM PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SUCH AS
   KVAX/KTLH...WOULD PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS AND
   MORE PROBABLE SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A
   TORNADO.
   
   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 02/13/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30288546 31348465 31858179 31608121 30398197 30288546