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Mesoscale Discussion 162
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E AND NE TX INTO SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 022136Z - 030130Z

   SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
   OF EAST INTO NORTHEAST TX AND SWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS. 
   MEANWHILE...A COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GREATER SWD
   MOVEMENT ACROSS E TX AS COMPARED TO NRN LA AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
   SSEWD REACHING SE TX AND THE TX COAST TOWARD 00Z.  LOCATIONS IN THE
   WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN PRECIP-TYPE FROM RAIN
   TO A MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SLEET
   SHOWERS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH PER HOUR AND LOCALLY
   TO 0.15 INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY WITH TSTMS...ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE
   RATES ARE VERIFIED PER RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE WRN EDGE
   OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...LIGHTNING DATA...AND
   CIMSS GOES-R CLOUD TOP COOLING AND OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCTS
   INDICATED CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE 1930Z ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO SWRN AR. 
   WHILE THE OVERALL HAIL THREAT HAS REMAINED LOW PER WDSS-II MESH
   PRODUCT /E.G. MESH HAIL SIZE UP TO 0.5-0.8 INCH/...THE GREATER
   CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AN EXPECTED CHANGE IN PRECIP-TYPE
   FROM W-E.  MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SHOULD
   EXPERIENCE THIS CHANGE TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY 00Z...WITH THE
   SURFACE 32 F ISOTHERM EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM INVOF TXK TO NEAR CLL
   BY THAT TIME.  

   THE CURRENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
   INTO THE EVENING...IS OCCURRING AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST
   TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS ASCENT ATOP AN INFLUX OF
   WARM/MOIST AIR ALONG A 40-45 KT SLY LLJ BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY
   ATOP THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL SURFACE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN THE
   THREAT FOR TSTMS.  THE EQUATOR-WARD INCREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
   COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL
   THERMAL PROFILES TRANSITIONING TO ONES SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED WINTRY
   PRECIPITATION...WITH TSTMS ENHANCING THE PRECIP RATES.

   ..PETERS.. 03/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31729693 32579629 33549521 34609385 34559334 34289318
               33909362 33249398 31959472 30809557 30729638 31229702
               31729693 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2014
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