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Mesoscale Discussion 162
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...EASTERN
   KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011746Z - 012015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A
   WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO...MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION CROSSING THE MIDDLE
   OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN
   EWD-PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
   VALLEY AT PRESENT. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...WITH A LEADING LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   LINE...IS TRACKING ENEWD FROM WRN OHIO TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL ONLY UNDERGO
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION...AS POLEWARD FLUXES OF LIMITED MOISTURE
   OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BROADER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
   SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE
   AREA FOR MUCH SFC-BASED SVR-TSTM RISK -- GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
   HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE TO THE S WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
   THE AREA TO FOSTER SOME INCREASE -- ALBEIT LIMITED -- IN BUOYANCY.
   OTHERWISE...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL GREATLY MITIGATE DIURNAL GAINS IN
   BUOYANCY...IN ADDITION TO MITIGATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING RELATED
   TO AN EXPANDING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY.

   REGARDLESS...VWP DATA AT WILMINGTON OHIO AND JACKSON KENTUCKY SAMPLE
   APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR THAT MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. A FEW QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS...OR PERHAPS A
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO...MAY POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
   ISOLATED DMGG-WIND GUST OR TWO...AND PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.
   THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY...AND PAUCITY OF MOISTURE...WILL PRECLUDE A
   GREATER SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/CONIGLIO/HART.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37638458 38808418 39518297 39128202 37758229 37108282
               36928396 37638458 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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