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Mesoscale Discussion 162
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0162
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN TN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 311925Z - 312130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
   THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR BUT POSSIBLY ALSO PORTIONS OF FAR
   SOUTHERN MO/WESTERN TN. BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD.

   DISCUSSION...NEAR/SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED/DEEP CU FIELD
   ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AR AND FAR SOUTHERN MO. A /PARTIAL/
   19Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD MO NOW FEATURES NEGLIGIBLE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE 70S F
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUE TO WARM AND BECOME UNSTABLE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY
   WELL SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
   12Z AFWA/WRF-NSSL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGHER-LEVEL WINDS AND AROUND 40 KT
   OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS MORE
   CERTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP/COVERAGE COULD PROMPT A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 03/31/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   35739346 36889243 36679027 35988931 35168973 34959067
               35049265 35739346 

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Page last modified: March 31, 2015
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