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Mesoscale Discussion 163
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...NWRN TN...SRN WV

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 022348Z - 030545Z

   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN THREAT SHOULD EXPAND SWD/EWD THIS EVENING
   FROM NWRN TN....ENEWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN WV. MIXED P-TYPES MAY
   BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH NWD EXTENT...WHERE A MIX OF SLEET AND/OR
   FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS.
   AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS WRN/NRN KY IS EXPECTED LATE
   SUN EVENING INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
   PRIMARILY ALONG/S OF THE OH VALLEY IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF
   0.75-1 INCH PW. SFC COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS...AND AT LEAST MODEST POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL COLD
   ADVECTION IS ONGOING...WITH THE SFC FREEZING LINE ROUGHLY BISECTING
   KY FROM SW-NE AS OF 23Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARM NOSE CENTERED ABOVE 1.5 KM AGL. 

   FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THIS EVENING AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. THIS WILL OCCUR
   CONTEMPORANEOUSLY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES /0.1-0.25 IN
   PER HR/ AS AN UPSTREAM LEAD WAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX APPROACHES THE
   MID-MS VALLEY...AND 1.5-3 KM AGL LAYER FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS.
   SLEET MAY BECOME MORE COMMON WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY IN CNTRL/NRN KY/
   AS WARM NOSE BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED AND SFC TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
   THE 20S F.

   ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   38068327 38108151 37658134 37198241 36768483 36398658
               36028890 36408917 36738909 37088842 37478678 37818497
               37968406 38068327 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2014
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