MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CST WED FEB 13 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SE GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 131644Z - 131815Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS NRN FL. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE FL
   PANHANDLE WITH AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM
   WRN FL NNEWD INTO SE GA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN
   THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F. WARMING SFC TEMPS TO NEAR 80 F THIS
   AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
   J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS NRN FL
   WITH THE JACKSONVILLE WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT.
   THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   FRONT AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA.
   
   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 02/13/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30708151 30068131 29208119 28608112 28338144 28408181
               28688259 29178319 29538326 30068280 30308266 30728237
               30788186 30708151