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Mesoscale Discussion 164
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TN AND FAR
   SOUTHEASTERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011900Z - 012030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS MODESTLY INCREASING
   0VER THE MCD AREA...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN ISOLATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A SUB-SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED
   SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A NARROW ZONE OF
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEATING
   THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S NOW COVERING MOST OF THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER
   THE AREA IS NORTH OF THE LARGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE EML
   PLUME AND BUOYANCY REMAINS LIMITED TO MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG.
   NONETHELESS...INCREASING 850-700 MB FLOW OF 50-65 KT EVIDENT IN KHTX
   VAD WINDS...AND SOME INDICATION OF MESOSCALE REAR INFLOW BEHIND A
   SMALL KINK IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...MAY
   SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE IN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.

   ..CONIGLIO/HART.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   36858465 36868414 36778378 36628364 36318365 35758373
               35378388 35168416 35078454 35028489 35058556 35028598
               35088615 35438619 36058567 36318547 36858465 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2016
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