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Mesoscale Discussion 164
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0828 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LA AND SWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030228Z - 030430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP WITH LINEAR CONVECTION
   MOVING EWD ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM
   ABOUT 40 NW JAN SWWD TO NEAR POE AND BPT. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
   WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG IT DURING
   THE PAST HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A GLANCING
   INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OK AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. MODIFIED
   00Z LCH RAOB SUGGESTS WEAK BUOYANCY REMAINS /MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG/
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   60S ACROSS SRN INTO CNTRL LA. ALTHOUGH GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL REMAIN OVER THE COLD SECTOR...SOMEWHAT ORTHOGONAL DEEP-LAYER
   FLOW TO THE PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL LA COULD A FAVOR
   A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENT DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE MS VALLEY WITH
   A PRIMARY RISK OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND. WITH ERN
   EXTENT...DECREASING BUOYANCY AND WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER
   00Z JAN/LIX RAOBS WOULD LIKELY TEMPER INTENSITY OF THE LINE
   OVERNIGHT.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31509282 32089233 32349156 32479073 32309049 31999045
               31519072 30509146 29769239 29769307 29899355 30529342
               31509282 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2014
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