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Mesoscale Discussion 165
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast New Jersey...New York City...Long
   Island...Southern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 220057Z - 220700Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall will develop from northeastern New Jersey
   northeastward into southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates
   are expected to reach 1 inch per hour with locally higher rates in
   some locations.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
   centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. A pronounced dry slot is
   located off shore and is wrapping around the northeastern periphery
   of the upper-level system. A deformation zone is located along the
   leading edge of the dry slot from just off the New Jersey coast
   northeastward to just near the southern coast of Long Island. This
   band is being supported by a low-level speed max of 40 to 50 kt
   which is just offshore from southern New England and oriented
   parallel to the coast. In response, isentropic lift is maximized
   across the MCD area and short-term model forecasts suggest that this
   environment will be maintained this evening into the early overnight
   period. Heavy snowfall with 1 inch per hour rates will be possible
   from the Newark, New Jersey and New York City areas over the next 2
   to 4 hours. This heavy snowfall will spread northeastward into
   southern New England later this evening as the upper-level system
   continues to east-northeastward drift. Snowfall rates could locally
   exceed 1 inches per hour within the heaviest part of the band.

   ..Broyles.. 03/22/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

   LAT...LON   41747052 41237163 40717274 40177396 40287434 40567450
               40937421 41687291 42297103 41747052 

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