Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 166
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 166 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME SRN OH...WRN WV...ERN KY...ERN
   TN...WRN VA...FAR WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012043Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MID-OHIO VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND VICINITY THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON. A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
   SPREADS EWD/NEWD. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
   PROGRESSING EWD/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KY/TN. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...IN
   ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY TRANSITING THE
   MID-MS VALLEY REGION. INFLOW FOR THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
   FEATURE A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY OWING TO SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
   HOWEVER...WITH SOME POLEWARD FLUXES OF WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
   IN AN EXTRATROPICAL-CYCLONE WARM SECTOR -- I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
   AND 50S -- MLCAPE AROUND 100-400 J/KG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.

   THE PRIMARY FACILITATOR FOR ANY BUOYANCY WILL BE RELATIVELY STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER POCKETS OF DIURNAL DIABATIC
   SFC HEATING. RELATED ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MANIFEST ENHANCED BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AT THE SFC AS LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS. SUCH POTENTIAL -- ALBEIT
   LIMITED -- WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH CONVECTION-EMBEDDED BOWING
   SEGMENTS/MESOVORTICES. THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE
   WILL MITIGATE THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/CONIGLIO/HART.. 03/01/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   36948367 38008333 38668239 38328155 36528156 35838247
               35988417 36948367 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 01, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities