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Mesoscale Discussion 166
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

   Areas affected...Central CA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 222005Z - 222200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado possible for the
   next few hours across portions of central CA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown a subtle increase in
   storm strength over the past hour. This increase is likely tied to
   increased forcing for ascent from the shortwave trough currently
   traversing the region. Cloud cover has also thinned across the
   region, allowing for more diurnal heating and a resulting increase
   in instability. Current mesoanalysis estimated MUCAPE over 500 J/kg
   throughout much of the central CA valleys. 

   Winds throughout the Sacramento Valley have veered southwesterly,
   reducing the low-level shear and overall tornado potential in that
   area. However, given the strong mid/upper-level flow, 0-6 km bulk
   shear remains strong (i.e. over 50 kt), and the potential for
   transient storm organization still exists. Given the veered
   low-level flow, the primary severe threat in this area is hail, some
   of which may approach severe thresholds. An isolated tornado cannot
   be completely ruled out, especially in areas of localized stronger
   and/or backed surface winds. Winds are still a bit more
   southeasterly across the San Joaquin Valley, which favors more
   low-level shear and a relatively higher (albeit still low) tornado
   threat. Overall, the isolated nature of the threat will preclude the
   need for a watch.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37592127 38032154 38462168 38862161 39072114 38952073
               38782058 38462048 38232036 37862019 37411983 37011953
               36601918 36141957 36482050 37592127 

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