MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SW LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 182008Z - 182115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS SE TX WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO SW LA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG
   ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
   BE TRANSIENT...LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
   ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BE THE
   THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
   ACROSS SE TX. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
   THUS FAR BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME
   DESTABILIZATION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
   AND MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
   KEEP STORMS SHALLOW AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
   HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
   PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
   MERGERS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
   ROTATING STORMS NOTED IN MONTGOMERY AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES IN SE
   TX. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
   
   ..MOSIER/HART.. 02/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   29259490 28939552 29419645 30279651 31289526 31669469
               32359394 32309322 31779292 30949307 29929360 29259490