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Mesoscale Discussion 167
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1005 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2017

   Areas affected...southern New England and coastal Maine

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 091605Z - 092000Z

   SUMMARY...A mid-level frontal band of intense snowfall rates is
   forecast to develop from central CT northeastward through central MA
   and near the NH and ME coasts during the 11 am - 3 pm EST period. 
   Rates within the frontal band and augmented rates in the vicinity of
   convection will likely be in the 3-4 inches/hour range.  Localized
   blizzard conditions are forecast near the coast with gusts in excess
   of 35 mph expected and low visibility accompanying the heavier snow
   bursts.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the development of an intense band
   of snow from 20 mi ssw bdl to 25 mi nw orh northeastward through 20
   mi n psm as of 11 am.  A surface observation /KCEF/ in western MA
   recorded 3 inches/hour within this band from 9-10 am.  Farther
   south, Islip and LaGuardia have measured 3 inches/hour during the
   8-10am period.  The heavy rates have coincided with the development
   of deeper convection and lightning being detected---resulting in
   thundersnow over eastern Long Island and CT/RI.  

   Model guidance shows the mid-level frontal band gradually moving
   eastward across southern New England from central MA towards Boston
   during the next few hours.  Snowfall rates will likely maximize near
   Boston during the 1-3 pm period with rates of 2-3 inches/hour.  As
   the surface cyclone develops northeastward during the day, columnar
   cooling will lead to a transition from rain and mixed p-type to snow
   over eastern MA.  Snowfall rates will generally range from 1-2
   inches/hour away from the frontal band and convection.

   ..Smith.. 02/09/2017


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...

   LAT...LON   40937341 42187262 43957029 44446911 43756910 41527085
               40977194 40707325 40937341 

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Page last modified: February 09, 2017
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