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Mesoscale Discussion 167
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY...FAR SWRN WV AND VA

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 030550Z - 031045Z

   SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO EARLY
   MON MORNING ACROSS KY...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
   HEAVY SNOWFALL CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF KY. MIXED P-TYPES
   FEATURING PREDOMINATELY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF KY...ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TO SNOW MAY OCCUR
   BY 10-11Z.

   DISCUSSION...A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS ACROSS KY
   WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING EWD OUT OF
   THE SRN PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS FROM 05Z INDICATE MIXED P-TYPES ACROSS
   MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE COMMON NEAR THE
   OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE ROUGHLY 1 KM
   AGL SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ABOVE-FREEZING WARM NOSE AND RESULTANT MIXED
   P-TYPES ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH 08-09Z. AS THE UPPER WAVE
   APPROACHES THE AREA...ACCOMPANYING LLJ WILL SHIFT E OF THE REGION
   AND AID IN COOLING TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT...WITH P-TYPE
   INCREASINGLY BECOMING SNOW FROM NW-SE THROUGH 11Z.  

   PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OR GRADUALLY
   INCREASE /SNOWFALL APPROACHING 1 IN/HR/ AS A BAND OF ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING THE PRIMARY UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT IN ITS WAKE QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...AND
   SHOULD SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN PRECIPITATION RATES FROM
   W-E. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE HAS IT REACHING THE I-65
   CORRIDOR IN THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME.

   ..ROGERS.. 03/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36658500 36658317 36708244 37758236 38138221 38578228
               38428406 37958629 37788734 37428765 37048779 36708772
               36658500 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2014
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