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Mesoscale Discussion 169
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0814 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE/OK/WEST CENTRAL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11...

   VALID 010114Z - 010245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATER TSTM COVERAGE WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF WW #11 /ERN TX PANHANDLE
   INTO WRN OK/ THIS EVENING...WHILE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS
   WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
   PARTS OF WW #11.

   COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A DIMINISHING SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT AS THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVE EWD AND SURFACE-BASED
   INHIBITION INCREASES.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES COMBINED WITH MOSAIC
   RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK WNW-ESE ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM NWRN OK THROUGH THE OKC METRO...AND THEN EWD IN VICINITY OF
   I-40 THROUGH ERN OK TO WEST-CENTRAL AR.  00Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATED
   AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL WITH SBCAPE NEAR
   3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT.  THE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSING A THREAT AS
   WELL...GIVEN A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.  MOISTENING EVIDENT IN
   THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING IN THE 760-800-MB LAYER SINCE 12Z SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO BOOST INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE ERN HALF OF OK SHOULD BECOME LESS
   LIKELY...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED MULTICELL CLUSTERS ACROSS
   WRN OK INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND MOVING INTO
   WESTERN NORTH TX.  AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET PER WSR-88D/S
   FROM NORTHWEST TX/WRN OK TO SWRN KS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
   INCREASE IN WAA AND AT LEAST SOME UPSCALE ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE WITH
   THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO WRN OK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
   NORTH TX.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL
   BE BEST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
   CONTINUING TO RESULT IN A SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE EVENING.

   ..PETERS.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35739366 33939516 33689646 33959838 33929993 34020044
               34739997 35230035 36080015 36109917 35859814 35639696
               35739366 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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