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Mesoscale Discussion 170
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0827 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010127Z - 010300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH
   05Z. WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   CENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST GA. WHILE
   NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS LED TO INCREASING SBCINH...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES REMAIN ADEQUATE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /7-7.5 DEG C PER KM
   AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RAOBS/. ADDITIONALLY...MLCAPE NEAR 1000-1500
   J/KG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL
   THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
   NEAR 1 INCH...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE STORMS
   MARCH TOWARD THE COAST AND NORTHEAST FL WHERE INSTABILITY DECLINES
   AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKER. STORM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED BUT
   A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32378251 32478226 32478192 32368134 32058091 31898097
               31118151 30908186 30818236 30908281 31088297 31338303
               31628300 31978289 32378251 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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