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Mesoscale Discussion 170
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0936 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/southern NY...southwest
   CT...northern NJ...northeast PA

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 121536Z - 121600Z

   SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation will continue to spread
   east-northeastward across the region through the day.

   DISCUSSION...Ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave impulse crossing
   the southern Great Lakes region will continue to foster the
   east-northeastward spread of precipitation through the day. The 12Z
   soundings at Buffalo and Brookhaven NY indicate sufficiently warm
   conditions aloft to result in at least partial melting of descending
   hydrometeors. Observations indicate that sub-freezing temperatures
   within the surface layer are facilitating re-freezing, resulting in
   freezing rain across parts of the area -- especially from parts of
   eastern PA through southeast NY.

   Areas of sleet and snow may also occur -- particularly with westward
   extent across the region into central NY, where colder midlevel
   profiles exist in proximity to the wave. Marginally sub-freezing
   isothermal profiles could support efficient snow aggregation in
   these areas, and weak convective instability could yield locally
   enhanced precipitation rates. In general across the region,
   freezing-rain rates around 0.02-0.04 inch per hour,
   sleet-accumulation rates around 0.05-0.10 inch per hour, and
   snowfall rates around 0.5 inch per hour (perhaps locally to 1 inch
   per hour associated with spotty convective elements) may occur.

   After the 20Z-22Z time frame, an influx of drier air aloft should
   tend to result in diminishing precipitation coverage/intensity.

   ..Cohen.. 02/12/2017


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   40777296 40667414 40957458 42077542 42527615 42747684
               42957724 43277733 43337706 43467630 43447599 43217543
               42547457 41617310 40777296 

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Page last modified: February 12, 2017
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