MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN AND EXTREME SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 190047Z - 190215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH ERN AR...WRN TN AND NWRN MS EARLY THIS
   EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW
   EAST OF WW 36 AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH ERN AR AT 40-45 KT.
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS INTO WRN TN AND NWRN
   MS...BUT STORMS ARE MOVING EAST OF THETA-E AXIS AND INTO AN
   ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT BY
   WIDESPREAD RAIN. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   WHERE THE LLJ HAS INCREASED TO 60+ KT IN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
   UPPER JET LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
   AND MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. RECENT
   OBSERVATIONS IN CNTRL AR AND EXTREME SERN MO HAVE REPORTED
   CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 42 KT. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE EVENT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE MS
   RIVER.
   
   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 02/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
   
   LAT...LON   34519090 35329047 36228992 36778952 36598909 34139001
               34519090