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Mesoscale Discussion 172
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY...VT...NH...MA...Maine

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 121951Z - 130015Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow with rates of 1.0-1.5 inches per hour
   will continue spreading east-northeastward across portions of
   eastern New York and New England through the remainder of the
   afternoon and into the early evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...A broad shield of precipitation being enhanced by
   elevated warm advection and frontogenesis, well in advance of an
   amplifying midlevel shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes
   region, is spreading east-northeastward across parts of the
   Northeast. Related ascent extends through sufficiently deep
   dendritic growth zones for heavy snow, with heavy snow presently
   being reported across portions of eastern NY and southern New
   England.

   The zone of isentropic ascent and related areas of heavy snow will
   continue to spread east-northeastward across the region, with
   1.0-1.5-inch/hour snow rates anticipated. Linear extrapolation and
   the latest short-range high-resolution model guidance suggest that
   the leading edge of heavier snow should enter parts of
   western/southern Maine around 21Z, with this activity continuing to
   spread east-northeastward into the early evening hours.

   Meanwhile, midlevel dry air should continue impinging on the
   southern extent of the precipitation shield. This will result in
   lessening intensity/coverage of snow across parts of east-central NY
   and adjacent southern New England through the early evening, while
   heavy-snow potential continues farther north/northeast.

   ..Cohen.. 02/12/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42367096 42457206 43157309 43927394 44747392 44957279
               45127124 45307022 45256915 44846849 44236859 43706998
               42877067 42367096 

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Page last modified: February 13, 2017
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