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Mesoscale Discussion 172
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0172
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0939 PM CST WED MAR 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SE OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030339Z - 030615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
   EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS STORMS MOVE FROM SCNTRL OK INTO
   SE OK. A FEW GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   EXPECTED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING JUST AHEAD
   OF THE VORTICITY MAX WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED.
   THE STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET. ALTHOUGH A SHARP SFC INVERSION IS PRESENT...MOISTURE ADVECTION
   ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000-1200 J/KG IN SE OK
   AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT AND
   STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM...SHOULD RESULT IN STORM
   ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL FORMATION WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.
   ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
   CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   IS0LATED.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34349582 34579662 34719711 35079739 35339702 35019570
               34489497 34139518 34349582 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2016
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