MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0826 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...NRN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...
   
   VALID 190226Z - 190330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN. OVERALL
   THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL...AND REMAINING PART OF WW
   36 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM WRN TN SWWD
   THROUGH NWRN LA. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
   NWRN LA INTO ERN TX. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES...AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO
   MOVE EAST OF THETA-E AXIS WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS RESULTED IN VERY
   LIMITED INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE LLJ IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
   EAST OF THETA-E AXIS...AND WINDS IN ERN TX HAVE WEAKENED AND VEERED
   TO WSWLY AHEAD OF THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
   NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW TOPPED LINE FROM NRN MS INTO WRN TN
   WHERE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. OVERALL THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   30639463 31419391 32039342 33429106 34459002 35228937
               36338833 35128859 32019161 30639463