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Mesoscale Discussion 173
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/SWRN TN/FAR NRN-NERN TN/NRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 010443Z - 010615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD /05-07Z/...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
   BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR
   FAR NERN AR THROUGH SWRN TN...NRN MS AND NRN AL.  THE GREATEST
   THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM IS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING DATA AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN
   ONGOING CORRIDOR OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR NERN AR THROUGH SWRN
   TN...NRN MS INTO NRN AL TO NORTH-CENTRAL GA...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING
   TO TRACK AND TRAIN SEWD.  A 20-30 KT W/SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THIS
   NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF STORMS IS PART OF A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO
   THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
   LOCATED ACROSS NERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL
   IMAGERY...PROGRESSES SEWD.

   ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS OVERNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR
   MASS AND/OR THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE.  THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL VEER THE LLJ...REDUCING WAA TOWARD 12Z SUCH
   THAT TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
   WEDNESDAY MORNING.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35819095 35669015 34808818 34298797 33968802 33878822
               33978862 34438958 35339107 35819095 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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