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Mesoscale Discussion 173
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MS...SRN LA...SWRN AL...WRN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031913Z - 032145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL BE A GRADUALLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY / DEEP SOUTH AND VICINITY. SVR
   HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THERE IS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR RISK. WHILE NOT
   IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS IMPLY CONVECTION BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY AGITATED ACROSS SRN MS -- WITHIN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL
   ASCENT THAT TRAILS TO THE WSW OF AN IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS. SFC OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF THE JACKSON MS METRO AREA
   ARCING THROUGH THE MERIDIAN MS AREA TO N OF MONTGOMERY AL. TO THE S
   OF THIS BOUNDARY...THETA-E IS INCREASING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...AS THE FLOW S/SE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER THE
   ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION FACILITATES NEWD/ENEWD FLUXES OF RICHER GULF
   MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM CNTRL AR TO CNTRL TX...POCKETS
   OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING OWING TO INSOLATION HAVE BEEN MOST ROBUST
   ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN LA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INFLUX OF
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL
   LA...AND SIMILAR/BETTER-MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA BENEATH A RESIDUAL EML SAMPLED BY EARLIER 12Z LCH AND
   LIX RAOBS. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1250 J/KG WITH
   DECREASING MLCINH...ENCOURAGING INCREASINGLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAY DEVELOP FROM ONGOING
   ACTIVITY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...
   ESPECIALLY AS A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND RELATED DCVA OVER
   THE ARKLAMISS REGION EVENTUALLY GLANCE THE AREA.

   VWP DATA AT JACKSON MS AND SLIDELL LA SAMPLED ABUNDANT DEEP SHEAR
   SUPPORTING ROTATING TSTMS CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY SVR HAIL/WIND.
   SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IN PROXIMITY TO A BOUNDARY
   FROM JACKSON MS TO SERN LA/SERN MS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   COULD OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY WITH MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS THAT INGEST
   HIGHER-DEWPOINT/MORE-BUOYANT INFLOW.

   PRESENTLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
   THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...OWING TO THE LACK OF SPATIAL OVERLAP
   BETWEEN STRONGER DEEP ASCENT AND RICHER MOISTURE/HIGHER INSTABILITY.
   FURTHERMORE...THE TENDENCY FOR SFC WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY MORE
   VEERED IN THE HIGHER-INSTABILITY AIR...AND THIS INFLUENCE ON
   VERTICAL-SHEAR PROFILES...CAST DOUBT ON THE EFFICIENCY FOR
   DEEP/ROTATING TSTMS TO MATERIALIZE. THE SVR RISK MAY ONLY GRADUALLY
   INCREASE...AND ITS PEAK INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN. AS SUCH...THE
   EVOLVING METEOROLOGICAL SCENARIO WILL BE RE-EVALUATED THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON FOR THE INCREASING SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30498712 29968951 29889108 30199180 30899184 31579131
               32048979 32158867 32078752 31628689 30498712 

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