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Mesoscale Discussion 174
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE ARKLAMISS REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032029Z - 032300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   CONVECTION CROSSING THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INSTANCE
   OR TWO OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
   WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT
   MID-LEVEL VORT MAX -- ENHANCED WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN
   ASSOCIATED CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK -- IS SUPPORTING AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SRN AR. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY POCKETS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING
   FACILITATING THE STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS WILL
   SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   HYDRODYNAMIC PERTURBATION-PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES ATTENDANT TO
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
   WILL OFFSET MEAGER BUOYANCY RELATED TO THE PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 
   50S -- TO SUPPORT STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE VERTICALLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /H5 TEMPS
   AROUND -25C TO -18C IN MANY AREAS/ WITH LOW FREEZING-LEVEL
   HEIGHTS...HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO
   POTENTIALLY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL OCCURRING WITH SOME
   TSTMS...A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF MLCAPE SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
   ALSO OCCUR WITH A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER IN NERN LA...SERN AR...AND
   ADJACENT W-CNTRL MS.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 03/03/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33409310 33949267 34339173 34249068 33518954 32908929
               32298998 32249173 32869272 33409310 

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Page last modified: March 03, 2016
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