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Mesoscale Discussion 174
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0174
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 AM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14...

   VALID 010616Z - 010745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 14
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL PROBABLY IS BECOMING
   FOCUSED IN AN INCREASINGLY NARROW CORRIDOR...BUT MAY PERSIST INTO
   THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA...ROUGHLY NEAR/ NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF
   MCALESTER...TOWARD AREAS SOUTHWEST OF FORT SMITH.  PARTS OF WW 14
   PROBABLY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LOCALLY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN AREAS NOT YET IMPACTED BY
   CONVECTION REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND SIZABLE CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG FOR MOST UNSTABLE
   LIFTED PARCELS.  AND THIS CONTINUES TO COMPENSATE FOR RATHER
   MARGINAL KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND SURFACE GUSTS.  IT CURRENTLY
   APPEARS THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WITH
   STRONGEST STORMS GENERALLY FOCUSED WHERE OUTFLOW ...ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE EVOLVING ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...TRACKS ALONG A WEAK
   FRONT/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM
   ARDMORE/SPENCER THROUGH AREAS SOUTHWEST OF FORT SMITH...BETWEEN NOW
   AND 08-10Z.

   ..KERR.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35529638 35469542 35289474 35089421 34829383 34409427
               34479484 34489552 34399624 34549659 34929637 35529638 

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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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