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Mesoscale Discussion 177
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0177
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CST SUN MAR 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL UT TO NORTHERN AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062335Z - 070200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40-50 KT WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL UT TO NORTHERN AZ. 
   THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL TEND TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING PORTION OF
   UPWARD-VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE GREAT BASIN
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUXTAPOSED WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   E/SEWD ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UT TO FAR SOUTHERN NV DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT
   /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BREAKS IN CLOUDS/ WILL
   SUSTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP SURFACE-3 KM
   LAPSE RATES /EXCEEDING 7-8 C PER KM/.  THIS COMBINED WITH UPLIFT
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND FORCING ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG SWLY WINDS OF
   40-45 KT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WERE SAMPLED BY VWP DATA AT LAS
   VEGAS AND IN SOUTHWEST UT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH TSTM DOWNDRAFTS.  

   THE EVENTUAL LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS EVENING AND LIMIT THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
   STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES EASTERN UT AND
   NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AZ LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..PETERS/WEISS.. 03/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

   LAT...LON   36371295 37811326 39531260 40181216 40211162 39971145
               39431093 38591064 37851059 37471063 36651086 36181143
               35931192 35931258 36011284 36371295 

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Page last modified: March 07, 2016
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