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Mesoscale Discussion 177
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0177
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0824 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

   Areas affected...portions of south-central and central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140224Z - 140400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Transient rotation may occur with the stronger updrafts
   this evening as storms continue to develop/intensify.  A low-tiered
   risk for a severe thunderstorm and other strong thunderstorms is
   expected to increase over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 0220 UTC shows a north-south band of
   quasi-discrete thunderstorms from 30 mi south of HDO to 25 mi north
   of JCT.  This activity has developed during the past 1-2 hours in
   the vicinity of a stationary front.  As mid- to upper-level forcing
   for ascent continues to increase as the upper low near El Paso
   approaches, a capping inversion noted on the 00 UTC DRT and CRP
   raobs will likely erode further and support a risk for prolonged
   thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.  Strong shear
   profiles coupled with weak buoyancy will probably foster an
   environment capable of several intermittent strong thunderstorms and
   perhaps a localized-severe risk with the most intense cores.  The
   overall severe risk will be tempered in part by weak
   buoyancy/diurnal heat loss.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 02/14/2017


   LAT...LON   28739950 31319977 31689876 31019832 30319902 28679918

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