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Mesoscale Discussion 178
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 012057Z - 012230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS MOVING ACROSS WRN
   KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. ISOLATED COVERAGE AND A
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW.

   DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A PLUME OF
   ENHANCED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG A LEE SFC TROUGH...AND W OF A DIFFUSE
   DRYLINE FROM FAR WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION
   WILL CROSS THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS /E.G. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG/ AMIDST MID-UPPER 40S F
   DEWPOINTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS AT MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
   STORMS GIVEN A ROBUST UPDRAFT...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
   LIKELY KEEP THIS THREAT ISOLATED/MARGINAL...PRECLUDING ISSUANCE OF A
   WW.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38910000 36609923 34959965 34830004 34950053 36430061
               38690134 39000097 38910000 

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