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Mesoscale Discussion 178
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072011Z - 072145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   INCREASE WITHIN THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX. THIS
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE COINCIDENT WITH A
   LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS OVER WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...ALONG THE WRN EDGE
   OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS CNTRL OK AND N TX. LATEST SATELLITE
   TRENDS SUGGEST SFC-BASED CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY THICKENING
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. CINH CONTINUES TO ERODE AS TEMPERATURES
   HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW-MID 70S F...WITH SFC OBS CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY
   WARMER/MORE MOIST THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS. THE
   COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH
   WEAKENING CINH AND MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE
   REGION...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION THROUGH 23Z...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
   ISOLATED.

   A NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE
   DRYLINE...COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
   SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF ANY ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND MUCH
   COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE E...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF AN INVERSION
   LIMITING SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
   HEATING. HOWEVER...AN ACCOMPANYING LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST
   RISK...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...MAY JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A WATCH THIS
   AFTERNOON FOR WRN OK INTO NW TX...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 03/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36919794 35369841 34279862 33669899 33399937 33399949
               33459992 34020001 35319998 36479954 36929904 36969863
               36919794 

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Page last modified: March 07, 2016
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