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Mesoscale Discussion 179
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072021Z - 072145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
   DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT STORM COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL
   PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WW. A GREATER COVERAGE OF SEVERE
   STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...AT WHICH TIME WW ISSUANCE
   WILL BE MORE LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME WRN OK SWWD THROUGH
   WCNTRL TX JUST WEST OF SAN ANGELO TO NEAR NEAR SANDERSON IN THE
   TRANSPECOS REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED IN A NARROW
   CORRIDOR EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. CUMULUS CONTINUES TO
   INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SAN ANGELO AREA WHERE
   CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WHERE DYRLINE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH
   WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH BACK EDGE OF ELEVATED WARM
   ADVECTION STORMS. FORCING ALOFT IS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR.
   HOWEVER...DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AT
   LEAST A COUPLE OF STORMS ALONG THERMAL AXIS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS
   AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES TOWARD EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   ARE WEAK...BUT 40-45 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.

   WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER FORCING WITHIN EXIT
   REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH NWRN MEXICO. MORE
   NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS THIS ZONE OF
   ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERTAKE DRYLINE.

   ..DIAL/GOSS.. 03/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31270105 31990043 32939986 32839942 32009963 31370004
               30980046 31020087 31270105 

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Page last modified: March 07, 2016
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