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Mesoscale Discussion 180
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0726 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK / S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020026Z - 020130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING AS STORMS INTENSIFY OVER NWRN OK.  THE CONFINED SPATIAL
   EXTENT OF THE ISOLD SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE OVER
   NWRN OK AND THIS FEATURE EXTENDS SSWWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER IN
   SWRN OK.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS MANAGED TO
   MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RESERVOIR OVER WRN AND NWRN
   OK WITH A MOISTURE AXIS PROTRUDING NWD INTO S-CNTRL KS.  STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 8 DEG C/KM WILL FAVOR HAIL GROWTH GIVEN
   COOL H5 TEMPS /-15 SAMPLED BY THE 02/00Z AMA RAOB/.  THE MODERATE
   BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
   WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE
   MULTICELL AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL MODES.  ALTHOUGH NEAR-SURFACE
   COOLING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INCREASED MOISTURE IN
   THE LOW-LEVELS WILL LIKELY SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING.  AS A
   RESULT...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUST RISK ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NWRN OK
   AND FAR S-CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
   DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   35899972 37099904 37359818 37129779 36709787 35789857
               35739935 35899972 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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