MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN...CENTRAL...NE KS AND EXTREME W CENTRAL
   MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 210916Z - 211515Z
   
   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF KS THROUGH
   12-15Z IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM
   NM.  THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED JUST NW OF THE ELEVATED
   CONVECTION NOW SPREADING NEWD OVER NRN OK/SE KS...WITH HOURLY RATES
   APPROACHING TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
   EXPAND/INTENSIFY ACROSS OK/SRN KS...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM ERN NM.  THE COMBINATION OF
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA WILL PROMOTE
   STRONG ASCENT INTO THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS KS.  NEAR
   AND NW OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THERMAL PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   SNOW AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN NW
   OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION NOTED A LITTLE
   FARTHER TO THE SE.  GIVEN THE LARGE INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   FROM TX AND THE STRONG ASCENT...SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE SPREADING NEWD TOWARD NE KS/NW
   MO.  ALSO...WEAK MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
   CONVECTION...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LIGHTNING OVERSPREADING S CENTRAL
   KS.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL HOURLY PRECIPITATION
   RATES...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER
   HOUR ALONG THE NW FRINGE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39079432 38669431 38379462 37549666 37049740 37059827
               37059974 37060068 37400092 37880089 38680058 39419977
               39579905 39659785 39599631 39379493 39079432