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Mesoscale Discussion 183
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0919 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern SC/far southern NC/extreme eastern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151519Z - 151745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Portions of the eastern Carolinas and far eastern GA are
   being monitored for some potential of increased damaging-wind risk
   through the afternoon -- especially after 17Z. Present indications
   are that Watch issuance is unlikely, though convective and
   environmental trends will continue to be monitored through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An established squall line across the Piedmont region
   of SC extending into extreme east-central GA will continue advancing
   eastward toward the Atlantic coast through the afternoon, with some
   development northward into far southern NC anticipated. Ahead of
   this activity, surface pressure falls on the order of 1.5-2.0 mb per
   2 hours are analyzed within a warm sector in which low-level winds
   are relatively veered. A related influx of partially modified Gulf
   moisture will continue to foster modest boundary-layer
   destabilization amidst fairly widespread cloud coverage. While this
   cloud coverage will tend to mute prospects for more robust
   destabilization, especially given the presence of surface dewpoints
   only in the middle/upper 50s, strong tropospheric wind fields exist
   across the region.

   With 45-50 kt of flow around 1 km above ground per area VAD wind
   profiles, convective momentum transport may support localized
   damaging wind gusts -- especially in association with line-embedded
   rear-inflow enhancements and meso-vortices. The most-likely timing
   of increased severe potential should be after 17Z. While a
   brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out, the overall dearth of
   moisture return and paucity of buoyancy should tend to limit such
   potential. Furthermore, with convective-line-preceding flow in the
   lowest km above ground largely oriented parallel to the line,
   convective inflow and gust-front convergence will be limited, thus
   restricting overall convective intensity. If it were to become
   apparent that more robust destabilization were to evolve, Watch
   issuance probabilities could subsequently increase.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 02/15/2017


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32738204 33138138 34157937 34447837 34127812 33507899
               32628003 31828151 32238238 32738204 

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Page last modified: February 15, 2017
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