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Mesoscale Discussion 184
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0184
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1023 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern GA and northern FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151623Z - 151900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
   potential through the afternoon. While Watch issuance is not likely
   owing to anticipated limited severe coverage, environmental and
   convective trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Warm-sector destabilization continues across the
   region, ahead of a cold front advancing eastward -- presently
   analyzed from central GA through the central FL Panhandle. With
   surface dewpoints in the lower/middle 60s and diurnal heating
   ongoing, modifications to the Tallahassee 12Z sounding suggest
   MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg with little capping. Convection along a
   pre-frontal confluence axis from northwest of Savannah GA to near
   Albany GA -- largely without lightning production -- will continue
   to spread eastward across the region through the afternoon. Some
   intensification of this activity is possible -- especially after
   17Z. Meanwhile, additional convection may continue to develop
   farther east, aided by diurnally deepening boundary-layer
   circulations amidst weak warm advection.

   With stronger ascent displaced to the north of the relatively richer
   moisture across the area, and veered flow throughout the warm sector
   restricting convergence along the cold front and pre-frontal
   confluence axis, low-level ascent will remain quite weak. This
   should limit prospects for sustained/vigorous updraft development,
   especially given the marginal buoyancy. Nevertheless, given
   effective shear around 50-60 kt and ample low-level speed shear, and
   a more cellular convective mode, isolated damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a brief/weak tornado could accompany convection through the

   If more robust destabilization or convective development were to
   become apparent, Watch-issuance probabilities could subsequently

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 02/15/2017


   LAT...LON   29838209 29728324 30238411 31008409 31678331 31868224
               31618161 31258134 30448151 29838209 

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