MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 211108Z - 211245Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE VERY SLOWLY BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
   ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL TX OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WW
   STILL REMAINS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A SUBTLE INCREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS WITHIN THE LINE OF
   CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS N CENTRAL TX -- PARTICULARLY BETWEEN ABI
   /ABILENE TX/ AND FSI /FORT SILL OK/.  THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF
   THE CONTINUED ADVANCE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   SYSTEM...PRESUMABLY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTING
   IN SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED CAPE WITH TIME.  
   
   HAVING SAID THAT...STORMS REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...WITH NO CELL AT ANY
   TIME THIS MORNING SUGGESTIVE OF ANY MORE THAN PEA-SIZED HAIL PER
   WDSS-2 MESH DATA.  WITH CONVECTION-ALLOWING HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS
   SHOWING NO FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR THIS REGION FOR ANY SIGNS OF APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE INCREASE
   WHICH COULD WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   31459799 31519899 32109945 33069907 34199817 34009701
               32969674 31499768 31459799