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Mesoscale Discussion 185
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0185
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of north and central FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151850Z - 152115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may spread inland and across parts
   of north and central FL through the mid/late afternoon hours. While
   Watch issuance is unlikely, convective and environmental trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convective cells -- some producing 
   lightning -- has developed along a weak baroclinic zone/confluence
   axis over the east Gulf, and this activity is tracking eastward
   toward the coast of the FL Peninsula. Mosaic radar imagery suggests
   that convection is maintaining semi-discrete and cluster-mode
   characteristics, owing to the weak low-level ascent and sufficient
   boundary-orthogonal mean flow/deep shear component.

   Meanwhile, insolation amidst an adequately moist air mass downstream
   across the FL Peninsula is supporting MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg --
   strongest in proximity to the Gulf Coast. As the aforementioned
   convection spreads inland -- especially around and after the
   1930Z-2030Z time frame and ingests destabilizing inflow, isolated
   severe potential may evolve. Deepening boundary-layer circulations
   over inland areas may support earlier convective intensification
   ahead of the previously mentioned activity.

   Given 35-45 kt of effective shear, organized/sustained convective
   structures -- perhaps including weak supercells -- may occur.
   Isolated damaging wind gusts, or even marginally several hail, may
   accompany this activity. The Tampa Bay VAD wind profile indicates
   slight veering of winds with height in the lowest 1 km above ground,
   yielding sufficient low-level SRH for the possibility of a
   brief/weak tornado. However, the veered character of the warm-sector
   low-level flow will tend to temper convective inflow and SRH,
   lessening such potential. Furthermore, an overall dearth of
   large-scale ascent should tend to limit the severe coverage.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 02/15/2017


   LAT...LON   28668272 29738259 29858149 28768086 28108109 27698254

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