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Mesoscale Discussion 185
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN AND NE AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021650Z - 021815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
   THE NE AR NEWD INTO WRN KY AND FAR SRN IND. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
   MO WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY. A
   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR
   THE BOOTHEEL OF MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F. AS SFC
   TEMPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
   DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MLCAPE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 1500
   J/KG RANGE. SATELLITE SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WRN KY AND WRN
   TN SUGGESTING INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THERE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WRN IL AND ECNTRL MO. LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM APPEAR TO DEVELOP A BAND OF
   CONVECTION FROM SRN IL SWWD INTO SE MO ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
   STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS...SHOULD BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. THE
   INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
   A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   35198944 35099044 35309108 35679151 36569131 38328926
               38828701 38258629 37618644 36848771 35968879 35198944 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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