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Mesoscale Discussion 187
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND ERN MO...SCNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021946Z - 022115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL MO EXTENDING
   ENEWD INTO SCNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE
   NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM NW IL SWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO FAR SE KS WITH AN AREA OF
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD MO.
   THE CAP HAS WEAKENED ACROSS MUCH OF SW MO WHICH IS ALLOWING
   CONVECTION TO INITIATE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SHORT-TERM
   MODELS FORECAST THIS CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
   MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS. A THERMAL AXIS IS
   ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY CONVECTION.
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN ERN MO
   WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
   SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CELL-ROTATION POSSIBLE. ANY
   CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP PERSISTENT ROTATION SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY ALSO
   BE FAVORABLE FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING
   STORMS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38278833 37818918 37429023 37039152 36839258 37049311
               37529336 37919322 38169286 38589150 38999034 39298955
               39548880 39418803 38768790 38278833 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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