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Mesoscale Discussion 187
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081910Z - 082045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CNTRL TX AS STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING IS OCCURRING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF THICKENING CU
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF DRT...AND NEAR AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM JUST S OF SJT EWD TO NEAR LZZ.
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN AN EWD SHIFT IN A DIFFUSE
   DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUT A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S F
   DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ACROSS CNTRL TX. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND 50 KT OF
   MIDLEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO RISK...BUT A BRIEF/LOCALIZED
   TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE IF STORMS INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31579699 31189705 30199757 29839930 29380085 29870138
               30780118 31600095 31880084 32089980 32629811 32809765
               32599713 32219694 31579699 

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Page last modified: March 08, 2016
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