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Mesoscale Discussion 188
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N AND CNTRL TX...S-CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022041Z - 022245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM S-CNTRL OK
   SWD INTO CNTRL TX...GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO STORMS. A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEATING IS OCCURRING ALONG/W OF A WEAK SFC
   TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF ADM SWD TO HLR...WITH
   TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 F. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
   COUPLE AREAS OF INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT...ONE NEAR ADM...AND A
   SECOND AREA BETWEEN BWD AND JCT...BUT CAPPING IS LIKELY INHIBITING
   VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE 12Z RAOB FROM FWD WITH
   20Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THAT CINH IS NEARLY ERODED. SHOULD CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND PBL CIRCULATIONS...WITH LITTLE
   TO NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NOTED.  THIS SHOULD
   FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS AT MOST. 

   MODERATELY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT COMBINED
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE AND
   CONDITIONALITY OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34469747 34849719 34839674 34239639 32849675 31069764
               30309879 29999968 30260007 31139997 32539842 34469747 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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