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Mesoscale Discussion 189
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau...TX Hill Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192152Z - 192345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms capable of hail and damaging
   wind gusts are possible during the next few hours and trends will be
   monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a dryline from just west
   of DYS southwestward into far western portions of Val Verde county.
   Regional radar and satellite data have shown an increase in
   attempted convection initiation over the past 30 minutes but no
   sustained storms have been able to overcome the low-level warm layer
   (i.e. around 850 mb) yet. However, filtered sun has resulted in
   modest diurnal heating and, despite some low-level mixing, this
   heating coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates continues to
   support gradually increasing instability across the region. 

   The stronger synoptic forcing for ascent remains back west but the
   persistent attempts at convection initiation and the approaching
   dryline suggest that a few discrete storms may develop within the
   next few hours. Overall kinematic environment is supportive of
   organized storms with a primary threat of hail and damaging wind
   gusts. While the tornado threat is non-zero, the weak low-level flow
   across the area suggests the tornado threat will be very low.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 02/19/2017


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29760144 29860174 30790119 31310071 31509958 30719914
               29149981 28900047 29210075 29610128 29760144 

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Page last modified: February 19, 2017
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