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Mesoscale Discussion 189
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL PLAIN...W-CNTRL LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161046Z - 161245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF A COLD FRONT
   PUSHING SEWD TOWARDS THE TX COAST. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM LRD
   NEWD TO IER. RADAR TRENDS SHOW TSTMS INITIATING ALONG AND N OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE AS IT PUSHES SWD TOWARDS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. ACTIVITY
   IN FAR E TX APPEARS TO BE SURFACE-BASED WITH A RESULTANT ORIENTATION
   MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR FOR A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER W...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH FORCING RESULTANT FROM VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM NRN MEXICO.
   COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
   OF 50 KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 03/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27679977 28359953 30059678 30839471 31729366 31529306
               31129285 30309345 28969594 27479854 27679977 

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Page last modified: March 16, 2014
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