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Mesoscale Discussion 189
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...AND FAR SRN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 38...

   VALID 082352Z - 090115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 38 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 38 IS
   SLOWLY DIMINISHING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AREA FORECAST
   OFFICES...WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOWS A MESSY
   CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH LINEAR/MARGINALLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES
   BEING OBSERVED. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO
   MOVES EWD TONIGHT. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MLCAPE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS
   DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE MAY STILL
   BE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AS MLCAPE AROUND
   500-1000 J/KG REMAINS OVERLAID WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
   40-50 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200-400 M2/S2 PER AREA VWP ESTIMATES.
   THIS COULD SUPPORT A GUSTY WIND/VERY ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN THE
   NEAR TERM...BUT WITH A SLOWLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED...
   WW 38 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

   ..GLEASON.. 03/08/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   31899441 32929366 33299296 33189226 32629188 31369209
               30579289 29999427 30269482 31279472 31899441 

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