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Mesoscale Discussion 190
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0512 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/western/northern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192312Z - 200145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop northward/eastward
   through the evening hours, and an isolated/marginal severe risk
   could evolve. Watch issuance will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms from parts of central/western TX into
   southwest OK will continue to develop northward/eastward during the
   next several hours. This will occur as midlevel height falls
   continue overspreading the region amidst modest 850-700-mb warm
   advection. Convection over southwest OK already is assuming somewhat
   disorganized/cluster-type convective modes. This is consistent with
   multiple subtle inflections in the hodograph representing deep
   meridional flow indicated by the FDR VAD wind profile. With around
   50-55 kt of deep shear, and modest strengthening of low-level shear
   profiles through the evening, a few briefly severe storms could
   occur. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with
   this activity. Convective interference owing to increasingly
   numerous thunderstorm development, coupled with a relatively more
   dry/stable boundary layer compared to points south, should greatly
   minimize the severe risk.

   ..Cohen/Thompson.. 02/19/2017


   LAT...LON   36609745 35239730 34889750 34899812 35319867 35979890
               36729877 36849814 36609745 

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