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Mesoscale Discussion 190
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...SRN OH...AND NRN MIDDLE
   TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16...

   VALID 022203Z - 022300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF WW 16 IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS EXTENDING FROM SRN OH ACROSS KY AND INTO NRN
   MIDDLE TN CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. 21Z SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE E OF
   THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INDICATE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
   50S...AND WITH MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM
   ALOFT...MLCAPE DECREASES QUICKLY WITH EWD EXTENT. THIS MAY TEND TO
   LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE WW 16. HOWEVER...A
   POSSIBLE MCV FEATURE EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS OVER S-CNTRL KY NEAR
   BOWLING GREEN MOVING EWD MAY HELP PROMOTE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT
   ACROSS S-CNTRL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS
   THIS REGION OVER THROUGH 23Z...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO
   THE E OF WW 16 MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN KY...THE PROBABILITY OF WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT.

   ..GLEASON.. 04/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36018663 36278699 37078670 37758570 38768415 38918301
               38688257 37848281 36898419 36598500 36018663 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2015
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