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Mesoscale Discussion 191
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX...EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...BIG COUNTRY...NRN HILL COUNTRY.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090107Z - 090300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC...ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
   REMAINDER EVENING AS TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NWD TO NNEWD ACROSS THIS
   REGION.  LOCALLY LARGE HAIL AND STG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY-DAY
   MCS EXTENDING FROM NEAR OCH...HLR...TO NRN GILLESPIE COUNTY...WSWWD
   TO INTERSECTION WITH FRESHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EDWARDS
   COUNTY...SWWD ACROSS KINNEY COUNTY.  MCS OUTFLOW IS QUASISTATIONARY
   TO LOCALLY RETREATING NWD...PER SFC OBS TRENDS AND LAST VIS IMAGERY.
    BUOYANCY...MOISTURE AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH GRADUALLY
   DIMINISH FROM MAIN BOUNDARY NWD...WITH MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL
   SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MUCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG NEAR BOUNDARY TO AROUND
   1000 J/KG INVOF US-380 ALONG NRN EDGE OF DISCUSSION AREA.  MUCINH
   ALSO INCREASES NEWD THROUGH DFW METROPLEX REGION DUE TO RELATIVELY
   SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERTURNING PRODUCED BY DAYTIME CONVECTION.  

   NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS MAIN
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES SEWD ACROSS NRN MEX...WITH
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED...AS MOST OF THIS AREA WILL REMAIN W OF PRIMARY LLJ...WHICH
   WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE AND E TX.  LARGEST
   HAIL SIZES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   THETAE...CAPE MAGNITUDE/DEPTH...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DEEP
   SHEAR...AND TOTAL PW AVAILABILITY TO UPDRAFTS EACH SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31409723 31109817 30499924 30369957 29760125 30550150
               31350145 32190111 32940064 33179957 33139784 32859682
               31699650 31439657 31409723 

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Page last modified: March 09, 2016
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