MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SERN LA...FAR SWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 211922Z - 212115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL EXIST WITH PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS DEEPENING ACROSS A
   WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN LA. A BRIEF TORNADO RISK
   ALSO EXISTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   DISCUSSION...SW/NE-ORIENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED FROM
   THE LA COAST ACROSS A WNW/ESE-ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30
   N LCH TO LFT TO 20 S MSY AS OF 19Z. BASED ON 18Z LCH/LIX RAOBS IT
   APPEARS THAT MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE REQUIRED FOR
   SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HAS PRIMARILY DEEPENED ALONG/NE
   OF THE FRONT THUS FAR...SUGGESTING TRANSITION BETWEEN SURFACE TO
   ELEVATED ROOTED PARCELS IS LIKELY TAKING PLACE. AS SUCH...ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.
   
   ..GRAMS/HART.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   31479168 31529145 31489075 31389038 31099009 30558991
               30039022 29809029 29779083 29969141 30279225 30399244
               30699236 31119210 31479168