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Mesoscale Discussion 192
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0813 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

   Areas affected...South Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...

   Valid 200213Z - 200415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread across the remainder of ww35
   over the next few hours.  Large hail is the primary risk with
   isolated embedded supercells, and locally damaging winds may
   accompany bowing line segments.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has steadily increased in areal coverage
   over the western half of ww35 ahead of a well-defined upper vort
   that is located south of the Big Bend region near 28N/104w.  Latest
   model guidance suggests height falls will overspread deep south TX
   later tonight which appears to be partly responsible for southward
   thunderstorm development to Zapata county in the Valley.  While BRO
   and CRP soundings are both capped this evening, seasonally high PW
   exists across south TX with 14.8 g/kg observed at CRP.  As the LLJ
   increases ahead of this activity there is increasing confidence
   thunderstorms will continue to propagate east.  Given the observed
   instability across this region there is some concern for isolated
   hail/damaging winds into portions of Deep South TX.  Will continue
   to monitor the region immediately south of ww35 for possible ww.

   ..Darrow.. 02/20/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28220129 30230082 30239898 28239947 28220129 

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