Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 192
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 192 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0192
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0813 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

   Areas affected...South Central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...

   Valid 200213Z - 200415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread across the remainder of ww35
   over the next few hours.  Large hail is the primary risk with
   isolated embedded supercells, and locally damaging winds may
   accompany bowing line segments.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has steadily increased in areal coverage
   over the western half of ww35 ahead of a well-defined upper vort
   that is located south of the Big Bend region near 28N/104w.  Latest
   model guidance suggests height falls will overspread deep south TX
   later tonight which appears to be partly responsible for southward
   thunderstorm development to Zapata county in the Valley.  While BRO
   and CRP soundings are both capped this evening, seasonally high PW
   exists across south TX with 14.8 g/kg observed at CRP.  As the LLJ
   increases ahead of this activity there is increasing confidence
   thunderstorms will continue to propagate east.  Given the observed
   instability across this region there is some concern for isolated
   hail/damaging winds into portions of Deep South TX.  Will continue
   to monitor the region immediately south of ww35 for possible ww.

   ..Darrow.. 02/20/2017


   LAT...LON   28220129 30230082 30239898 28239947 28220129 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: February 20, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities