Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 193
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 193 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH EXTREME NRN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161802Z - 162000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY
   EXTEND EAST OF WW 31 INTO SRN GA AND EXTREME NRN PART OF THE FL
   PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH NRN PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY
   REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
   WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LINEAR MCS FROM SWRN GA SWWD INTO THE CNTRL FL
   PANHANDLE IS MOVING EAST AT 35-40 KT. ROTATING COMMA HEAD WITH
   BOWING SEGMENT CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THE
   LINE...BUT HAS UNDERGONE A WEAKENING TREND. A STRONG 40-50 KT SWLY
   LLJ HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN DESTABILIZING THE SFC LAYER JUST AHEAD
   OF THE MCS. HOWEVER...TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR NRN PORTION OF LINE TO
   OUTPACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERY...AND A GREATER FETCH OF
   LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER LAND EXISTS ACROSS SERN GA AND NRN FL.
   NEVERTHELESS...DIABATIC WARMING HAS STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   DOWNSTREAM FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY AND /THOUGH WEAK/ SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY MAY PERSIST FOR A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION TO
   CONTINUE EAST BEYOND WW 31. EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES REMAIN
   POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...BUT THE VERY
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 03/16/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31508300 31778264 31688235 31058206 30378226 30348296
               30518321 30988296 31508300 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 16, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities