MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 37...
   
   VALID 212115Z - 212245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 37 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE AT/NEAR PEAK THROUGH AROUND
   23Z...WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO.
   
   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB CYCLONE AROUND 40
   E SHV WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO A TRIPLE-POINT IN
   VERNON PARISH. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO NEAR LK PONTCHARTRAIN
   AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD INTO FAR SERN TX. INITIAL BAND OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WHICH HAD A HISTORY OF EMBEDDED
   CIRCULATIONS WITH REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE WEAKENED AS RENEWED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED JUST TO ITS E. ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS MORE RECENT
   DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE TRIPLE-POINT. MODIFIED 18Z LCH
   RAOB SUGGESTS MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
   PRIMARILY SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. THIS INFERS THE TORNADO RISK WILL
   REMAIN SPATIALLY LIMITED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE SRN EXTENT OF
   THE TSTM BAND. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN THE WARM
   SECTOR THIS EVENING...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS UNLIKELY TO
   APPRECIABLY INCREASE BEYOND BRIEF/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 02/21/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   30319308 30449361 30909364 31539301 32079265 31939165
               31219173 30439225 30319308