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Mesoscale Discussion 193
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL...S-CENTRAL...DEEP S AND SE
   TX...COASTAL PLAIN FROM GLS BAY AND HOU AREA SWWD.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39...

   VALID 090554Z - 090800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW FOR ONGOING SVR THREAT AS BAND
   OF TSTMS SLOWLY SHIFTS EWD.  SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING NEXT 2-3
   HOURS OVER ERN PORTIONS WW AND EWD BEYOND TX COASTAL BEND TO SE
   TX...AND ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO COVER THAT
   THREAT BEFORE WW 39 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z.

   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DIURNAL MCS...AS DETAILED IN
   PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...HAS MOVED LITTLE ACROSS PARTS OF E
   AND CENTRAL TX...AND STILL RESIDES FROM NEAR OCH WSWWD TO GILLESPIE
   COUNTY...WHERE IT INTERSECTS FRESH OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
   RELATED TO ONGOING BELT OF CONVECTION OVER WRN PORTIONS WW. LATTER
   BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN GILLESPIE COUNTY SSWWD OVER WRN FRINGES
   SAT METRO AREA...JUST E OF I-35 AND COT ACROSS LA SALLE AND WEBB
   COUNTIES...TO JUST SE LRD AND ADJOINING PARTS OF MEX.  OVERALL
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF POTENTIALLY SVR CONVECTION WITHIN THIS PLUME
   HAS DECREASED...IN PART DUE TO MERIDIONAL FLOW AND RESULTING
   MERGERS/OUTFLOW INGESTION ON STORM SCALES.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED
   INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY ACCESS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED INFLOW LONG
   ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN TO SVR LIMITS...WHETHER WITH GUSTS...HAIL OR
   BRIEF TORNADO RISK FROM TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS.    

   GEN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EVIDENT ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF
   SE TX THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS DEEP S TX AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT
   INCREASES.  THIS IS PRIMARILY FROM EXPANSIVE REGIME OF NOCTURNAL
   LOW-LEVEL WAA...BUT ALSO MAY BE AFFECTED ON WRN PORTIONS BY GRADUAL
   COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH OBLIQUELY APCHG AREA OF MIDLEVEL DCVA
   PRECEDING SEWD-MOVING MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NRN MEX. 
   PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR NEAR AND S OF OLDER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
   REMAIN CHARACTERIZED...FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT LEAST...BY MLCAPE
   INCREASING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY TO ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG
   OVER VCT REGION.  THIS WILL BE BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT UPPER
   WINDS AND 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  ERN PORTIONS OF WW
   EWD TO SE TX ALSO WILL RESIDE WITHIN WRN RIM OF BROAD...35-50-KT...
   SLY/SSELY LLJ THAT WILL MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS
   RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER W NEAR SAT/MFE CORRIDOR.  AS SUCH...SOME
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS E OF WW.  WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED AS CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS WARRANT.

   ..EDWARDS.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   25999715 25849737 26029763 26079813 26239852 26249869
               26359884 26389907 26899927 27059950 27289942 27339952
               27569950 27599958 27759956 27849923 28999897 30289862
               30949857 31179851 31439842 31449745 31439490 29449472
               28339637 27969693 27259734 26459725 25999715 

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