Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 193
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 193 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1012 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / SWRN MO / NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

   VALID 030312Z - 030445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO APPEARS HIGHEST OVER NERN OK
   AND THE OK/MO/AR BORDER REGION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  THE
   TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO LESSEN WITH EWD EXTENT INTO S-CNTRL MO AND
   N-CNTRL AR LATER TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN
   QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER STORM CLUSTER AND
   THERE REMAINS A TENDENCY FOR A PREFERRED DISCRETE MODE DESPITE
   STORM-SCALE MERGERS AND DOWNSTREAM PRECIP SEEDING.  ONE NOTICEABLE
   TREND IS FOR LESS ORGANIZATION IN THE CYCLING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ACROSS NERN OK AND EXTREME SWRN MO DURING THE
   PAST 30-60 MIN...ESPECIALLY AS THEY MOVE E OF THE OK BORDER.  

   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOUTH-NORTH TONGUE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EVIDENT IN OKLAHOMA MESONET OBSERVATIONS OVER NERN OK WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 63-65 DEG F RANGE.  A DECREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   IS NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60 DEG F 25-50
   MI E OF THE OK BORDER.  KINX VAD SHOWS AROUND 550 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH
   VERSUS 280 M2/S2 AT KSGF USING OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS.  THE DECREASE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SMALLER HODOGRAPHS COUPLED TOGETHER ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF THE NOTION FOR LOWER TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT
   INTO S-CNTRL MO AND FAR NRN AR.  

   NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
   LIKELY BE MAINTAINED FARTHER E AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD INTO SWRN
   MO AND NWRN AR FROM NERN OK.

   ..SMITH.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36759562 37189368 37169287 36829213 36209247 36369513
               36579557 36759562 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 03, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities