Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 195
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 195 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/NERN OK/SRN MO/NRN AR/WRN KY/WRN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

   VALID 030623Z - 030715Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST SENTENCE OF 2ND DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH.

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONE OR TWO NEW WATCHES WILL NEED TO BE COORDINATED WITH
   AFFECTED WFO/S AND ISSUED BY 07Z...GIVEN THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK THROUGH PARTS OF SRN MO/NRN AR
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS REACHING WRN KY/WRN TN AROUND
   09Z.

   DISCUSSION...AT 06Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR
   STRUCTURE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MO /SHANNON AND
   SERN TEXAS COUNTIES/ INTO FAR NWRN AR...NEAR THE MO BORDER FROM
   BOONE INTO WRN MARION COUNTIES AR.  THIS LINE WAS MOVING E/SEWD AT
   42-45 KT INTO A DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IN NRN AR/SERN MO INTO THE
   LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS THAT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT.  THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT BOTH BOWING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. 
   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT THAT
   WOULD USUALLY LEAD TO A DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...AN
   E-W SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS FAR NRN AR AND CONCURRENT E-W AXIS OF
   SURFACE VORTICITY MAY BE SUPPORTING THE CURRENT TORNADO THREAT AND
   COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS EFFECTIVE SRH
   RANGES FROM 400-600 M2/S2 FROM SRN MO/NRN AR INTO WRN KY/WRN TN.

   MEANWHILE...A FAST ESEWD-MOVING /AROUND 60 KT/ LINE OF STORMS OVER
   SERN KS WILL PROGRESS INTO SWRN MO...PERHAPS PARTS OF NERN OK AND
   NWRN AR OVERNIGHT.  DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
   ACROSS OK/SERN KS INTO THE OZARKS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  GIVEN THE FAST SPEED OF THIS CURRENT
   KS LINE OF STORMS AND AN INCREASE IN SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH AN
   INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ADDITIONAL STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE LIKELY.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   35359018 35829257 36229437 36499533 37159565 38199496
               37999406 37429196 36788985 36588944 35618983 35359018 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 03, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities