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Mesoscale Discussion 195
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of east-central/southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200550Z - 200715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential will continue to spread
   northeastward across portions of east-central/southeast TX into the
   overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...An established convective cluster crossing the TX Hill
   Country will continue spreading northeastward across parts of
   southeast/east-central TX into the overnight hours. Low-level warm
   advection and amply moist inflow characterized by surface dewpoints
   in the middle 60s to around 70F will continue to maintain some risk
   for convection during the next several hours. This is especially the
   case given the approach of a midlevel speed max from the west and
   related large-scale ascent, contributing to modest overnight
   instability. Strong vertical shear profiles will support organized
   convection, with sufficient low-level shear for brief/embedded
   meso-vortices. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
   tornado or two could occur. However, the relatively widespread
   convective coverage and numerous cell interactions may be disruptive
   for a more substantial/longer-duration severe risk. Regardless,
   convective and environmental trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cohen/Darrow/Thompson.. 02/20/2017


   LAT...LON   29799722 30049764 30789749 31319687 31199608 30529594
               29859647 29799722 

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