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Mesoscale Discussion 195
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S INTO SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091329Z - 091530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING...WITH WIND AND
   HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
   ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST
   AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO
   NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES...AND
   LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
   RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER...A
   CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE
   INSTABILITY...SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING...OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN
   FORM.

   TO THE S...MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE
   DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO
   THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
   INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS
   THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY
   EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS
   INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT
   TERM...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
   WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26109846 28149911 29349797 31789470 31749388 31259324
               30499312 29619354 29089485 28439606 27819689 27019723
               26319742 25909770 26109846 

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Page last modified: March 09, 2016
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