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Mesoscale Discussion 209
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0209
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southern/eastern KY...middle/eastern
   TN...and northern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 250250Z - 250415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage
   ahead of a cold front, with some threat for large hail and damaging
   winds with the strongest storms. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance
   is possible if storms strengthen further.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms extends from southern KY
   into middle TN and northern AL along a pre-frontal trough as of
   0245Z. As large-scale forcing for ascent overspreads this area from
   the west with an approaching mid to upper-level trough, convection
   should continue to increase in coverage over the next several hours.
   02Z RAP mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE around 500 J/kg is located
   across middle TN and surrounding vicinity, as relatively steep
   mid-level lapse rates (around 7.5 degrees C/km) are present per the
   00Z sounding from Nashville, TN. Even with the limited buoyancy, a
   veering wind profile and strong mid-level winds are supporting 40-50
   kt of effective bulk shear. An isolated large hail and damaging wind
   threat should develop with this broken line of storms through the
   remainder of the evening hours, and a severe thunderstorm watch may
   be needed if convection continues to strengthen.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 02/25/2017


   LAT...LON   34878737 35858677 37168538 37188415 36938361 35908454
               35008564 34388639 34468709 34878737 

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