MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 242149Z - 242315Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SPLITTING CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST HOUR WITHIN
   A W/E-ORIENTED CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT IN THE NERN GULF. THIS FLARE UP APPEARS TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO
   LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT CO-LOCATED WITH A POCKET OF COMPARATIVELY
   RICHER LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE ANALYZED IN OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH
   MUCAPE IS LIKELY MEAGER...AROUND 250-500 J/KG...MODERATELY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLYS
   INCREASING THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SAMPLED IN TLH/EVX VWP
   DATA...WILL FAVOR TRANSIENT RISKS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH
   TIME...INCREASING AMALGAMATION OF CORES MAY TEMPER THE THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 02/24/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30538288 30258260 29768266 29398286 29418331 29628517
               30378641 30648525 30538288