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Mesoscale Discussion 209
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT SUN APR 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 052008Z - 052215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURST
   WINDS OVER SWRN TX THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF ANY
   SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF MIDDLE AFTERNOON...DIABATIC WARMING OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH BASED...SUPPORTED BY
   INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 45 KT+
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY PROMOTE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. ACTIVITY
   MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZES.

   ..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29820443 30690446 31250343 31200211 30710147 29880144
               29850205 29750263 29330343 29820443 

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