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Mesoscale Discussion 209
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0209
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR...FAR NE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271700Z - 271900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
   SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS BUT
   OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
   ELEVATED TSTMS OVER FAR NE TX AND SW AR DURING THE LAST HOUR. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS A
   RESULT OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED MID-LEVEL
   SPEED MAX. WITH A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB SAMPLED
   BY THE 12Z SHV AND LZK SOUNDINGS...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE
   TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH THE STORMS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 750
   MB. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG
   WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KTS WHICH WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT
   SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A
   WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33069428 33409465 33989467 34889407 35289305 35369171
               35329086 35029057 34349077 33709149 33049282 33069428 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2014
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