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Mesoscale Discussion 210
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

   Areas affected...central and eastern NY...eastern PA...much of NJ
   and northern DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251716Z - 251845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms is expected to track quickly eastward
   across central and eastern NY, eastern PA and into northern DE and
   NJ this afternoon and early evening. Some isolated strong cells
   could produce strong/damaging wind gusts. Trends will be monitored
   for possible watch issuance within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection along/just ahead of the eastward
   advancing cold front has been increasing in intensity over the last
   30 minutes or so. Downstream, the airmass has warmed into the 60s to
   lower 70s in broken cloudiness with dewpoints in the mid to upper
   50s. This has allowed weak destabilization to occur, with
   mesoanalysis indicating around 500 J/kg SBCAPE across the region.
   Some additional destabilization is possible through the afternoon,
   which should further aid in storm organization and intensification
   over the next several hours. Strong deep layer shear parallel to the
   front will favor line segments with perhaps some bowing in stronger
   segments. While thermodynamics are unimpressive, fast storm motion
   in conjunction with strong shear profiles may result in some
   strong/damaging gusts. Modest lapse rates and lack of stronger
   instability should limit large hail potential, though some small
   hail is possible in strongest cells. Trends will be monitored and a
   watch may be needed within the next couple of hours if
   intensification continues. .

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 02/25/2017


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   43447639 43957559 44187474 44167399 44007352 42927364
               41787387 40377440 39857466 39587542 39557582 40017678
               40967700 42337671 43447639 

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Page last modified: February 25, 2017
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