MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN MS/FAR SOUTHERN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 250048Z - 250215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...PERIODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
   AS TSTMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LA/FAR SOUTHERN
   MS AND FAR SOUTHERN AL. OVERALL SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MARGINAL OVERALL...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
   PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEAR TO BE
   CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/VIGOR OF TSTMS ACROSS
   COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FURTHER
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION PROBABLE THROUGH THE EVENING. TO THE
   NORTH OF AN OFFSHORE WARM FRONT...THESE TSTMS WILL REMAIN DECIDEDLY
   ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH A RELATIVELY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...THE
   00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NEW ORLEANS/SLIDELL LA WAS INDICATIVE A
   7.0 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE WITH 1200 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH MUCH OF
   THE TSTMS LIKELY BASED AROUND 850-900 MB. RELATIVELY MODEST ELEVATED
   CAPE...AND MORE SO...A TENDENCY FOR CONGEALING TSTMS GIVEN
   RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CLOUD LAYER /2-3
   KM/...SUGGEST THAT HAIL SIZE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AN INCH IN
   DIAMETER OR LESS.
   
   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   30778748 29128878 29299180 30299205 30778748