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Mesoscale Discussion 210
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MS AND
   SOUTHWEST TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 43...

   VALID 140457Z - 140630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 43 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 0530-07Z WILL BE CONFINED TO
   SOUTHWEST TN TO NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MS.  THEREAFTER...THE
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER DIMINISHING
   TREND.

   DISCUSSION...AREA VWP DATA ACROSS MS REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
   STORM ORGANIZATION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER VWP AT JACKSON
   AND COLUMBUS MS FAVORING STORM ROTATION.  WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT INTO SOUTHWEST TN...THE RELATIVE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE
   CONFINED TO WEST-CENTRAL MS WHERE MUCAPE IS THE STRONGEST /300-800 J
   PER KG PER RAP ANALYSIS/.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE
   COMPACT MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW INTO NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN WILL
   MAINTAIN A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT FURTHER
   WEAKENING OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FURTHER
   REDUCTION IN STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS.

   ..PETERS.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32579141 33469081 33939021 34448974 35238959 35888933
               35668903 34198926 33308945 32818999 32509051 32489073
               32579141 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2016
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