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Mesoscale Discussion 211
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT MON APR 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...WRN AL...ERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061806Z - 062000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM GENERALLY ALONG/E OF THE MS
   RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS SHOULD BECOME STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE COMMENCED OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG A
   WNW/ESE-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXIS NEAR THE SW MS/ERN LA BORDER AREA.
   WITH MODEST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AXIS...THIS
   CONVECTION SHOULD DEEPEN INTO TSTMS SHORTLY...ALTHOUGH LATER THAN
   RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE DEPICTED. LOW-LEVEL SLYS ARE WEAK PER LIX VWP
   DATA AND A MODERATE N/S GRADIENT IN DEEP-LAYER W/SWLYS IS EVIDENT IN
   UPSTREAM VWP DATA AT SHV/POE/LCH. WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG
   THE PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT PLAINS EML...CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
   MULTICELL CHARACTER WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
   DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION MIGHT EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS CNTRL MS OWING
   TO DEEP SHEAR ENHANCEMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MCV TRACKING E
   FROM TEXARKANA.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 04/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31768759 30978769 30548805 30338961 30379055 30699105
               31169112 32039097 32629077 33019047 33249015 33258968
               33178922 33048875 32868829 32578797 31768759 

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Page last modified: April 06, 2015
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