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Mesoscale Discussion 211
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1138 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141638Z - 141815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING AND MODEST INCREASES
   IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE LED TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   NORTHERN GA...FAR EASTERN TN INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA/NC AND
   NORTHERN SC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN TN AS DEEP FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION. A RESIDUAL EML WAS NOTED ON 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS...WITH STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM PRESENT ABOVE THE EML. WITH
   CONTINUED HEATING...WEAK INHIBITION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND
   FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35-40 KT COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS
   AND CLUSTERS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
   FAIRLY WEAK...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C/KM AND
   SFC-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE
   NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. 

   FARTHER EAST...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
   NC/SC. AN MCD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS
   THAT AREA TO ADDRESS EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...

   LAT...LON   36098090 35498139 34878204 34318270 34108321 33988433
               34078484 34268512 34548523 34848520 35238499 35758469
               36178428 36568375 36838335 37018275 37138176 37058106
               36678084 36098090 

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Page last modified: March 14, 2016
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