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Mesoscale Discussion 212
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0212
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/S-CNTRL MO...FAR W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 272050Z - 272145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN MO /IN TORNADO WATCH 33/
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH UPSCALE GROWTH ANTICIPATED. A WW WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS ERN/S-CNTRL MO /POSSIBILITY INTO FAR W-CNTRL
   IL/ BY 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE HAIL ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD...LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE
   LINE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND
   EVENTUALLY THE ONGOING TSTMS. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   SOMEWHAT WITH THE TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE BUT WILL REMAIN
   NON-ZERO GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS TO
   REACH CNTRL MO BEFORE TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE AND/OR WITH ANY
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE LINE. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD CONTINUE
   AHEAD OF THE LINE LONG ENOUGH FOR DEWPOINTS TO REACH MID
   50S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. 

   GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY REACH
   CNTRL/NE MO FIRST. HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
   S-CNTRL MO. AS A RESULT...TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO WILL LIKELY BEGIN
   TO WEAKEN ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO WHILE THE PORTION OF THE LINE EXTENDING
   SWWD TOWARDS SGF STRENGTHENS...BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT THREAT. A
   WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 22Z TO COVER THIS SEVERE THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37069104 36519218 36649308 37169343 38579292 39129263
               40579210 40399089 38639069 37069104 

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Page last modified: March 27, 2014
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