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Mesoscale Discussion 214
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

   Areas affected...Southeastern VT...southern NH...far southern
   ME...MA...eastern CT...and RI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252324Z - 260030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40 is
   unlikely due to an unfavorable airmass.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery as of 2315Z shows a bowing line of
   thunderstorms across the lower Hudson Valley of NY moving into the
   eastern part of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 40. These thunderstorms
   have recently (2244Z) produced a measured severe wind gust of 69 mph
   at the Montgomery Airport in Orange County NY, along with some tree
   damage. As this convection continues eastward along a cold front
   into much of the remainder of New England, it is expected to quickly
   weaken due to a stable airmass. Southeasterly winds off the Atlantic
   across this region have prevented appreciable destabilization into
   much of MA/CT/RI/VT/NH, with RAP Mesoanalysis suggesting MUCAPE of
   100 J/kg or less downstream of the ongoing convection. While a very
   isolated strong to damaging wind threat may persist slightly to the
   east of the current Severe Thunderstorm Watch, downstream watch
   issuance is unlikely due to the hostile thermodynamic environment.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 02/25/2017


   LAT...LON   42797276 43677238 43627091 43257041 42537060 41367116
               41217269 42797276 

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