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Mesoscale Discussion 214
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0214
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0817 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071317Z - 071445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE ST
   LOUIS METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR AND MAY BE MAINTAINED INTO
   PARTS OF SRN IL THROUGH MIDDAY. SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING
   CONSIDERED NOW.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL
   REPORTED TO GOLF-BALL SIZE WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF THE ST LOUIS
   METRO AREA THROUGH 15Z. 12Z SGF/TOP RAOBS SAMPLED VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-8.5 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AND NEAR
   40-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   WITH THIS CELL LIKELY TO EVOLVE ALONG THE GRADIENT OF STRONG
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...MAINTENANCE OF A SMALL MCS CLUSTER INTO SRN
   IL APPEARS PROBABLE PER LATEST HRRR/WRF-NSSL RUNS. THIS COULD YIELD
   AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK AS WELL.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38949098 38989016 38908944 38608877 38198848 37788837
               37568852 37408891 37398944 37599047 37899104 38229123
               38499135 38949098 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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