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Mesoscale Discussion 215
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO NE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281735Z - 281930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
   18-19Z ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CNTRL TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM
   IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY YIELD A CLUSTER/MCS BY EVENING. LARGE
   HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A TRIPLE-POINT CYCLONE OVER
   THE WRN METROPLEX WITH AN ATTENDANT TO S/SSW ACROSS THE ERN EDWARDS
   PLATEAU. TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR AS
   INHIBITION HAS BEEN MINIMIZED OWING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING
   INTO THE 80S ACROSS CNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
   ANEMIC...40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
   MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE
   RATES WILL YIELD A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR LARGE HAIL
   /SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT/. WITH TIME...MOST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SIMULATE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
   CLUSTERS/MCS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
   RISK OF SEVERE WIND.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 03/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31599875 32479790 33379681 33559617 33729552 33719483
               33339463 32519466 31659511 31049571 30389657 30079762
               30139862 30239903 30549930 31079927 31599875 

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Page last modified: March 28, 2014
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