MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39...
   
   VALID 250801Z - 251000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND REMAINS ACROSS WW 39...BUT
   APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
   
   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS PERSISTS ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
   TX SWWD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
   DOWN LAST FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE INTERACTING WITH A COOL
   BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS CAPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION AS WELL AS AMPLE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR HAS HELPED MAINTAIN AT LEAST STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
   EARLY THIS MORNING.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW JUST N OF ABI AS OF 08Z...AND PWAT
   SENSORS AND WIND PROFILERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NWD ADVECTION OF
   MORE ROBUST MOISTURE NWD JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THERE
   APPEARS TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
   HAIL/WIND ACROSS NRN TX WHERE FORCING WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
   SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...A NEW WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED IF COVERAGE
   REMAINS SPARSE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   30699887 30709982 31479960 31999979 32350057 33849981
               33839739 30699887