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Mesoscale Discussion 216
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1003 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

   Areas affected...north central and northeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271603Z - 271730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential exist for isolated supercells to develop over
   north central TX by late morning and continue into a portion of
   northeast TX this afternoon. Primary threat will be large hail
   though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are developing over north central TX
   this morning within a weak warm advection regime. Objective analysis
   shows the atmosphere to be moderately unstable with around 1500 J/kg
   MUCAPE, but the storms are currently elevated. Widespread clouds
   will slow boundary-layer warming. However, unidirectional wind
   profiles with effective bulk shear of 40-45 kt and moderate
   instability is sufficient to support updraft rotation with these
   cells including potential for left splits which may augment the
   threat for large hail. With time, a gradual warming and moistening
   of the boundary layer may result in surface based activity. The 0-1
   km hodograph size is relatively small except in vicinity of warm
   front/outflow boundary over northeast TX where the boundary layer is
   stable. A threat for a tornado will exist if low-level
   destabilization occurs in vicinity of this boundary during the
   afternoon as storms move east and interact with it. Subsidence
   drying aloft and warming due to eastward advection of elevated mixed
   layer plume will eventually cap the atmosphere from the west with
   time, suggesting a relatively small window for storms to organize
   and become severe in this region.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 02/27/2017


   LAT...LON   32319790 33199678 33149498 32669431 31929486 31649749

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