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Mesoscale Discussion 216
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 151924Z - 152030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO
   INTO SOUTHEAST IA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 F
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO 70S F.
   THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY.
   CONTINUED HEATING AND PERHAPS GAINS OF 1-3 DEGREES IN DEWPOINTS INTO
   THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AN UNCAPPED WEAK TO MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH FORECAST MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR. 18Z SURFACE PRESSURE FALL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
   LOW NEAR KCOU SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER AND
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW BY 22Z.
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.5 DEG C/KM WERE NOTED IN
   THE 19Z DVN RAOB. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 50-60 KT WILL FAVOR
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 0-3KM
   SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WILL LIMIT DAMAGING WIND CONCERNS...BUT
   MODERATELY FAST STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS
   IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. 

   WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH REGARDS TO
   THE TORNADO THREAT...A CORRIDOR OF NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXIST
   FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHWEST IL. BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL
   ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
   IN AN AREA FROM NEAR KUNI TO KDVN EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL. IF
   FACT...THE 19Z RAOB FROM DVN SHOWED 0-3KM SRH NEAR 300 M2/S2. GIVEN
   THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39229145 39259177 39409210 39639231 39999248 40469248
               41039224 41439188 41729146 41959091 42129016 42058970
               41938921 41708866 41148827 40388824 39698852 39288886
               39208915 39199023 39229145 

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Page last modified: March 15, 2016
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