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Mesoscale Discussion 216
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27...

   VALID 071814Z - 071915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE MORE RECENTLY PRODUCED ONLY
   SUB-SEVERE HAIL MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WW 27 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 19Z...AN
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LARGELY SLOW-MOVING MCS HAS FAILED TO MAINTAIN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE CHARACTER WITH SUB-SEVERE HAIL REPORTS /SUPPORTED
   BY MRMS MESH/ AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF ONLY 20-30 KT IN
   METARS/MESONETS. HOWEVER...SOME ACCELERATION AND INITIAL MCV
   FORMATION APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED OVER WAYNE COUNTY IL WITH 50-60
   KT INBOUND VELOCITIES TO THE VWX RADAR. GIVEN A 15-20 DEG F
   TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD POOL AND THERMAL AXIS ALONG
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY AMIDST 40-KT 0-6 KM SHEAR PER VWX/PAH VWP
   DATA...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL RISK. BUT GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED BACKGROUND
   ASCENT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND RECENT
   HRRR RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DEPICTED A TREND TOWARD DISORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/SE INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38548782 38678704 38668622 38618600 38418588 37988621
               37768675 37478739 37278815 37278897 37348967 37588998
               37848983 38548782 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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