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Mesoscale Discussion 217
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0217
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern AR...northern/central
   MS...northwestern LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280810Z - 281045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong storm development is
   possible through the 09-12Z time frame, accompanied by a risk for
   severe hail.  The need for a watch is not currently anticipated, but
   trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...In the presence of rising mid-level (500 mb) heights
   and capping associated with warm elevated mixed layer air (based
   near 700 mb), the initiation of widespread deep convective
   development still seems unlikely.  However, model guidance, in
   general, indicates an increase in thunderstorm activity is possible
   through the 09-12Z time frame, as far south as the Mississippi Delta
   Region.  This appears mostly in response to a forecast strengthening
   of southerly low-level flow (40-50+ kt at 850 mb), in a corridor
   near/east of the Mississippi River.  This may be accompanied by
   sufficient strengthening of ascent associated with warm advection to
   overcome inhibition.

   If/when storms form, environment profiles appear conducive to at
   least some severe weather potential.  Activity likely will be based
   above a residual stable near surface layer, but steep mid-level
   lapse rates and relatively cool mid/upper levels may be supportive
   of the risk for severe hail in the strongest storms, aided by
   strong, largely unidirectional shear in the cloud bearing layer.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 02/28/2017


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33289229 34629157 34848945 34538884 33248812 32728974
               32539129 33289229 

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Page last modified: February 28, 2017
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