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Mesoscale Discussion 217
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152232Z - 160000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THIS EVENING. WHILE THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
   UNLIKELY...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF
   WW 44 AND/OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE. ANY SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
   THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO...AND
   STRONG WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS A FIELD OF
   DEVELOPING CU/TCU S/SW OF ST. LOUIS...GENERALLY ALONG/BEHIND AN
   EASTWARD-PROGRESSING SFC TROUGH. UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR AROUND 850-700 MB IS CONTRIBUTING
   CONSIDERABLE MLCIN ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   FAIRLY LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. AS SUCH...RAPID
   DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITHIN THIS FIELD OF CU IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS...THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ONE OR TWO STRONG
   UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUCH CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE
   TO UTILIZE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000
   J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS WOULD PROMOTE
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AS WELL AS DYNAMIC PARCEL LIFTING TO
   SUSTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL...DESPITE
   THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR. 

   WHILE THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL...A STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL JET AND A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...WOULD SUPPORT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL /CONSIDERING
   AMPLE BUOYANCY ABOVE -10 C AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR/.
   SATELLITE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 44 OR NEW
   WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 03/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38379084 38879085 38948948 39378837 39128756 38048789
               37678869 37469032 37559074 37979092 38379084 

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