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Mesoscale Discussion 217
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND E TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...37...

   VALID 282011Z - 282145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   36...37...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   PROGRESS EWD WITH ADDITIONAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE
   DOWNSTREAM OVER NERN TX. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS MAY YIELD A
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK AS FAR S AS THE 30TH PARALLEL. ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY S OF WW/S 36/37 BY 22-23Z.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN AREA OF SUPERCELL CLUSTERS JUST AHEAD OF A
   DRYLINE FROM JOHNSON TO BURNET COUNTIES HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
   REPORTED LARGE HAIL...WITH WDSS-II ALGORITHMS SUGGESTIVE OF
   SIGNIFICANT SIZE. A 58 KT WIND GUST WAS ALSO REPORTED AT KHLR AT
   2007Z. MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE
   SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IN COLLIN COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL AGITATED
   CU NOTED OVER NE TX WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. WITH SRN EXTENT...A
   CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS NOTED IN RECENT AMDAR DATA INVOF
   AUS/HOU...AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS INFERRED VIA WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY ACROSS S TX.

   CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OF THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IN E TX SHOULD
   YIELD A WANING CAPPING INVERSION /ROUGHLY N OF THE 30TH PARALLEL/
   WITH MODERATELY LARGE MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG. AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
   FORM...AMIDST A DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
   SUPERCELL SPLITS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS APPEARS PROBABLE
   CENTERED OVER ERN TX. THIS SHOULD FOSTER A MIXED MODE OF SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND INTO THE EVENING.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31089810 32339750 33209671 33509616 33589490 33389385
               32959320 32149304 31159335 30539394 30149501 30059654
               30219785 30439828 31089810 

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Page last modified: March 28, 2014
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