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Mesoscale Discussion 217
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...FAR SW IND...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...

   VALID 071953Z - 072130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A TRANSITION FROM A
   CONTINUOUS LINE OF TSTMS WITH AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR TWO TO A MORE
   DISCRETE STORM MODE WITH TWO DISTINCT SUPERCELLS...ONE OVER SRN IL
   AND THE OTHER APPROACHING EVV IN FAR SW INDIANA. RADAR DATA FROM THE
   VWX RADAR SHOWED A DECENT VELOCITY COUPLET AT 1925Z WITH MORE RECENT
   SCANS SHOWING A STRONG RFD WITH A LARGE AREA OF OUTBOUND VELOCITIES
   OVER 60 KT. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW 60S...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. SOME
   ADDITIONAL HEATING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN SVR THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 

   PAST FEW RADAR SCANS FROM PAH INDICATE THE WRN SUPERCELL HAS
   WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE MUTLICELL MODE
   ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SVR THREAT WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA AS
   WELL WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37979003 38578881 38638542 37978536 36788696 36939028
               37979003 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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