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Mesoscale Discussion 219
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK...WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 072203Z - 080030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS
   EVENING FROM FAR NRN OK ACROSS SERN KS AND INTO SWRN MO. VERY LARGE
   HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING WITHIN A
   DEEPLY-MIXED AIR MASS NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM SERN KS INTO
   NRN OK WHICH IS ALSO JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED JUST NW
   OF THE AREA. MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 4000 J/KG MUCAPE
   WITH VERY STEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...THIS
   SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK. 

   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND 23-00Z AS BOTH
   THE COLD FRONT ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET. SFC OBS ALSO SHOW A PLUME OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
   UPSTREAM OVER OK...WHICH WILL FURTHER FUEL STORMS THIS EVENING.

   SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS CLUSTERS OF CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY...SOME POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE. DAMAGING
   OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DEPENDING ON STORM MODE. 

   GIVEN THE LARGE LI ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOME
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING...A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM FAR NRN OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.

   ..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36099758 36159792 36339807 36709799 37199737 37519678
               38079591 38589526 38899471 38839374 38639342 37869326
               37269324 37109335 36529470 36309606 36099758 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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