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Mesoscale Discussion 219
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA AND SWRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 282338Z - 290215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
   TORNADO OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN LA THROUGH EVENING. IN
   ADDITION...AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL APPEAR
   LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS ERN
   TX...AND WILL MOVE INTO LA LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AS
   WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MIXED STORM
   MODES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH THE MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES
   AND HAIL WITH THE CELLS.

   CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SURGE WWD OUT OF MS AND
   SERN LA INTO CNTRL LA. MEANWHILE...NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS EXIST TO THE
   W OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CELLS HAS FORMED ON THIS
   RETREATING BOUNDARY...WITH SIGNS OF MIDLEVEL ROTATION. IT IS NOT OUT
   OF THE QUESTION FOR THIS STORM TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO.

   LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES FROM THE
   W...MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN
   ANTICIPATION OF THIS FEATURE. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY FAVORABLE
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
   THREAT OF A TORNADO. THEREFORE...A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29559372 30559393 32229335 32499223 32529140 31789069
               30829063 29909074 29169103 29289228 29559372 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2014
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