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Mesoscale Discussion 220
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28...

   VALID 072234Z - 072330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 28
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTION
   OF WW 28. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ERN KY MAY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT ABOUT 30 KT ACROSS CNTRL KY. A SURGE OF
   ENHANCED OUTBOUND VELOCITIES EVIDENT ON KLVX RADAR ACROSS MARION AND
   WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DESCENDING REAR
   INFLOW JET. DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THIS SQUALL LINE REMAIN
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW
   28...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY FORMED AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS IN GARRAD COUNTY...MOVING ESEWD AROUND 25 KT. THIS
   SUPERCELL HAS EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...AND IS ALSO
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL PER RECENT LSR. THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN KY IS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN CNTRL
   KY...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND TEMPERATURES IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S. COMBINED WITH MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...THIS IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN
   KY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   FOR ERN KY SOON IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE.

   ..GLEASON.. 04/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   36938486 36978524 37748499 38438443 38408374 38298270
               37888258 37198271 36818320 36838410 36938486 

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Page last modified: April 07, 2015
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