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Mesoscale Discussion 222
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL SC AND A SMALL PORTION OF S-CNTRL NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080024Z - 080230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS N-CNTRL SC AND FAR S-CNTRL NC. WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING HAS PROMOTED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER N-CNTRL SC. SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE PROVIDING A
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG PER RECENT RAP
   MESOANALYSIS IS PRIMARILY BEING LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
   HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED OVER THIS REGION. 

   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
   THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH COLD POOL INTERACTIONS AND A MERGING
   OF CELLS WITH TIME MAY ENCOURAGE SOME GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE
   LEVELS. AS SFC TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD ALSO LESSEN AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35038169 35018110 34938043 34738028 34368036 34018058
               34248211 34698204 35038169 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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