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Mesoscale Discussion 222
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF N FL INTO SRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290958Z - 291200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LIMITED INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS ONGOING CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A SLIGHTLY
   MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
   MAIN SEVERE RISK...THOUGH ATTM IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT RISK WILL
   BECOME SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
   U.S. AND ADJACENT NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER INLAND
   AREAS...AS STORMS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   OVER ERN AL AND ADJACENT WRN GA.  FARTHER S HOWEVER...MORE
   VIGOROUS/OFFSHORE STORMS CONTINUE...WHERE A MORE MOIST/MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS.

   THE STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO /GIVEN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND OVER THE WRN HALF OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE/.  FARTHER E HOWEVER...THE MORE MOIST/MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE NERN GULF AIRMASS IS BEING ADVECTED NWD ACROSS THE ERN FL
   PANHANDLE/NRN FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT SRN GA...PER LATEST
   SURFACE/BUOY OBS.  AS VERY MODEST DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES...LIMITED RISK FOR SOME INLAND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
   IS INDICATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THOUGH THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...A STRONGER GUST OR TWO -- PERHAPS NEAR
   SEVERE LEVELS -- COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA...PARTICULARLY NEARER THE FL COAST WHERE HIGHEST THETA-E
   BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS.

   ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30048604 30128499 30648418 31218352 31528300 31558233
               30998175 29868237 29278321 29098407 29098583 29658632
               30048604 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2014
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