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Mesoscale Discussion 222
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Northern Indiana...northern Ohio...and southern
   Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 010000Z - 010130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe risk in the form of large hail
   and damaging winds will continue eastward across northern Indiana,
   far southern Lower Michigan and parts of northern Ohio tonight. A
   watch will likely be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of elevated storms have developed and
   intensified over the past hour across northeast Indiana to the
   northeast of a warm front across the region. Steep mid-level lapse
   rates, modest elevated buoyancy, and ample shear through the
   cloud-bearing layer will support at least some severe hail risk this
   evening with these mostly elevated storms. Additional upstream
   storms across north-central/northeast Illinois may gradually move
   into the region later this evening, all while a warm front and
   related increasingly moist air mass develops northeastward across
   the region. This could account for at least some increasing
   near-surface-based severe risk later this evening with an increasing
   potential for damaging winds and at least some tornado risk.

   ..Guyer/Edwards.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   41548676 42608592 42118347 41708297 41038342 40368640

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