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Mesoscale Discussion 223
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 010005Z - 010200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms should increase in coverage across the region this
   evening, with a growing threat for tornadoes, large hail, and
   damaging winds. Cells will likely organize from portions of
   southeastern Kansas northeastward to west-central Illinois over the
   next several hours. Tornado watch issuance is likely over northern
   Missouri shortly. Additional watch issuance farther south is also
   possible this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Observational data early this evening suggest
   increasing large-scale ascent is beginning to overspread the region,
   with a few cells developing along surface confluence near the cold
   front just east of the Kansas City metro. KSGF VWP data depict a
   growing, clockwise-looping hodograph over the last 2-3 hours,
   indicating strengthening warm-air advection in response to forcing
   for ascent with the approaching trough. As mid-level temperatures
   continue to cool, thunderstorms will organize from southeastern
   Kansas to northern Missouri.

   A pool of higher surface dew points (generally in the lower 60s)
   currently exists across northeast OK and southeast KS, and
   strengthening low-level south/southwesterly flow should advect this
   moisture northeast through the evening. With regional soundings
   sampling steep mid-level lapse rates over the region, MLCAPE values
   around 1000-2000 J/kg should be realized from southeastern KS into
   central MO. Strong southwesterly 850-700-mb flow will enhance
   storm-relative helicity considerably, favoring low-level
   mesocyclogenesis in any supercellular structures that develop. While
   there is some uncertainty with the storm mode due to linear forcing
   along the front, recent convection-allowing guidance suggests that a
   cluster of supercells may form over the next 2 hours or so. 

   Considering the kinematic and thermodynamic environment, any
   sustained supercell would be capable of tornadoes, with the
   potential for a strong tornado or two. These cells would shift
   northeast from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri through the
   evening and into the overnight hours.

   ..Picca.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   37279653 38449534 39779355 40379285 40419232 40139178
               39549117 38539134 37199346 37009430 37029615 37139643

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