MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SERN MS/SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 252052Z - 252215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   REQUIRED E OF WW 42.
   
   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING ACROSS SRN
   LA...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT NOW E OF THE SABINE RIVER.
    WHILE A STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER PERSISTS ACROSS MOST OF ERN LA
   AND INTO ALL OF SRN MS...SLOW WARM-FRONTAL RETREAT WILL
   CONTINUE...WITH MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACQUIRING SURFACE-BASED
   CAPE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   AS THE WARM SECTOR EXPANDS NWD AND CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...GIVEN THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
   WHICH REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  MEANWHILE...HAIL THREAT
   WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA INITIALLY -- WHILE STORMS REMAIN
   ELEVATED PRIOR TO EROSION/REPLACEMENT OF THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   32159016 32479010 31628681 30808572 29948595 28998927
               32159016