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Mesoscale Discussion 224
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171244Z - 171445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY THROUGH 15Z DUE TO THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN AL OVER
   THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING
   OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE
   AL/FL COAST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE S OF A STALLED
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S AS OF 1230Z. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX REVEALS 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.2 DEG C/KM...AND A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE
   FROM THE SFC UP TO 890 MB. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-45 KT AND
   MLCAPE OF 1950 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MAINLY A
   LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WITHIN THE MCD AREA
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE
   WITH NRN EXTENT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED THROUGH 15Z...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE
   SHORT TERM.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30088935 31278893 31848797 31908684 31768600 31468561
               30978541 30428556 30008573 30208607 30328655 29988778
               29728897 30088935 

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Page last modified: March 17, 2016
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