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Mesoscale Discussion 224
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Indiana...western Kentucky and
   Tennessee...northeast Arkansas...southeast Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...43...

   Valid 010146Z - 010345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41, 43 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered supercells, some tornadic, are possible this
   evening from northern Arkansas into southern Illinois and Indiana. A
   new tornado watch is likely, replacing eastern parts of tornado
   watches 41 and 43.

   DISCUSSION...Widely spaced supercells currently persist across
   southeast MO and northeast AR, with strong rotation and tornadoes
   reported at times. These cells will continue northeastward across
   the MS river, where an expansive area of favorable instability and
   shear remain. In fact, the low-level jet is forecast to increase
   further, only adding to tornado favorability. Area VAD wind profiles
   show observed 0-1 km SRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, more than favorable
   for tornadic supercells given MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. 

   Other cells were beginning to form as of 0140 Z across northern AR
   and southern MO in between the two primary clusters. A further
   increase in storm coverage is possible this evening with main
   lifting mechanism being low-level warm advection.

   ..Jewell.. 03/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
   SGF...

   LAT...LON   35328972 34989187 35229244 35599271 36039276 38228973
               39118822 39428664 39268621 38838604 38148620 36578781
               35328972 

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