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Mesoscale Discussion 226
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/S FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 42...

   VALID 291825Z - 292000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 42 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...QLCS ACROSS CNTRL FL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE RISKS FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO. SWD PROPAGATION OF THIS LINE
   AND/OR EWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NERN GULF MAY YIELD A
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FARTHER S OF WW 42.

   DISCUSSION...CENTER OF A QLCS WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD REFLECTIVITY
   GRADIENT EXISTED FROM VOLUSIA TO PINELLAS COUNTIES AS OF 1815Z.
   BUOYANCY IS MODERATELY LARGE AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH MLCAPE AROUND
   2000 J/KG PER MODIFIED 15Z CAPE CANAVERAL RAOB. HOWEVER...MLB VWP
   DATA HAS DEPICTED INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN THE
   ORIENTATION OF THE LINE...RISK SHOULD BECOME PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BULGING LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS CNTRL FL.

   FARTHER SW...AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY
   CENTERED OFF THE FL SUNCOAST W OF FMY/SRQ. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE
   BEEN SUGGESTIVE OF EVENTUAL EWD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE S PENINSULA.
   BUT WITH WEAKER LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AMX VWP
   DATA...OVERALL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS
   THAN WITHIN WW 43. STILL...CONSIDERATION OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY
   EVENTUALLY BECOME WARRANTED.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28058252 28158204 28588136 29058089 28558044 26838001
               26298040 25858098 25978157 26608211 27458276 27928288
               28058252 

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Page last modified: March 29, 2014
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