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Mesoscale Discussion 226
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0841 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower Michigan...northern
   Indiana...and far northwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

   Valid 010241Z - 010415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a
   tornado will probably be focused across central and southern
   portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45 over the next several
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A bow echo that brought severe wind gusts near the
   southeastern shore of Lake Michigan is now decaying as it progresses
   eastward into more stable air. Behind and to the north of this bow,
   an expansive stratiform region is encompassing much of Lower
   Michigan, in turn reducing the severe potential. However, to the
   south of this area, the effective warm front / outflow boundary is
   providing a focus for renewed convective organization in the form of
   supercells and small bowing segments across far northwestern
   Indiana. The 00Z DTX sounding sampled steep lapse rates in the
   750-550-mb layer, which in tandem with strong mid-level flow, will
   maintain a threat for large hail. Additionally, 1-3-km flow around
   50-60 kts will support a threat for damaging winds in any bowing
   segments. Despite relatively stable low-level air, a tornado cannot
   be ruled out, considering the ample storm-relative helicity
   indicated by the KIWX VWP.

   ..Picca.. 03/01/2017


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40958688 41008706 41638723 41838629 42548453 42528308
               42308296 41738309 41318326 41108416 41038532 40958688 

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Page last modified: March 01, 2017
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