Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 226
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 226 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0841 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern Lower Michigan...northern
   Indiana...and far northwestern Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

   Valid 010241Z - 010415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a
   tornado will probably be focused across central and southern
   portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45 over the next several

   DISCUSSION...A bow echo that brought severe wind gusts near the
   southeastern shore of Lake Michigan is now decaying as it progresses
   eastward into more stable air. Behind and to the north of this bow,
   an expansive stratiform region is encompassing much of Lower
   Michigan, in turn reducing the severe potential. However, to the
   south of this area, the effective warm front / outflow boundary is
   providing a focus for renewed convective organization in the form of
   supercells and small bowing segments across far northwestern
   Indiana. The 00Z DTX sounding sampled steep lapse rates in the
   750-550-mb layer, which in tandem with strong mid-level flow, will
   maintain a threat for large hail. Additionally, 1-3-km flow around
   50-60 kts will support a threat for damaging winds in any bowing
   segments. Despite relatively stable low-level air, a tornado cannot
   be ruled out, considering the ample storm-relative helicity
   indicated by the KIWX VWP.

   ..Picca.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   40958688 41008706 41638723 41838629 42548453 42528308
               42308296 41738309 41318326 41108416 41038532 40958688 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: March 01, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities