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Mesoscale Discussion 228
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NC...FAR NERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292331Z - 300130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO EXIST FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
   MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL NC.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM
   NEAR FLORENCE SC NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...WHERE SURFACE MAP SHOWS
   PRESSURE FALLS AND LIGHT BUT SELY SURFACE WINDS. THESE STORMS ARE
   FORMING AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORT MAX AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
   ABOUT 2 HOURS OR SO. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A RATHER GOOD
   JOB AT FORECASTING THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS...WHICH THEY HAVE
   DISSIPATING BY AROUND 02Z OVER N CNTRL NC.

   GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY LIGHT
   SURFACE WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND OR HAIL IS LIKELY
   MINIMAL. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...AS WELL AS 0-1 SRH VALUES AROUND 100 M2/S2
   SUGGEST BRIEF AND LIKELY WEAK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR IF SOME OF THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAN PERSIST. RADAR HAS SHOWN LOOSE CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATIONS RECENTLY.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33897884 34007958 34457966 35287925 36377881 36637825
               36647759 36527718 36287713 35467749 35267758 34317832
               33897884 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2014
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