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Mesoscale Discussion 228
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0228
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1003 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Indiana...western Ohio...northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 010403Z - 010600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat of severe storms, including damaging wind and a
   few tornadoes, is expected to spread northeastward across much of
   Indiana, western Ohio, and northern Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...A highly sheared and moistening air mass currently
   resides across the region, supported by an increasing southwesterly
   low-level jet to over 60 kt. Effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2
   conditionally favors supercells and/or damaging bows. Cold air aloft
   combined with lower 60s dewpoints will result in sufficient
   instability given the extreme shear. Storms over central Indiana as
   well as points southwest will continue to spread northeastward,
   requiring a new watch. In addition, another round of severe storms
   is possible into Wednesday morning as activity now across Illinois
   along the cold front accelerates eastward. Damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes are possible.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   38918363 38598428 38768509 39218604 39628716 40348748
               41028676 41548629 41858563 41988466 41878371 41518284
               41258259 40748265 40048292 38918363 

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