MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0931 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL INTO FAR SRN AL AND FAR SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 260331Z - 260430Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/
   CAPABLE OF A TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AS SUCH...A NEW TORNADO
   WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO THE 04Z EXPIRATION
   OF TORNADO WATCH 44.
   
   DISCUSSION...VAD DATA FROM MOB-TAE INDICATE THE STEADY STRENGTHENING
   OF A SLY LLJ IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
   CYCLONE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE AIR MASS ALONG THE COAST CAN RECOVER OWING
   TO THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SHELF WATERS.  WHILE
   00Z MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE NWD
   DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INLAND OVERNIGHT...IT
   APPEARS REASONABLE THAT THIS BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE COAST LATER
   TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND
   BOWING STRUCTURES WILL INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY
   DESTABILIZES.  DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SUSTAINED...SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD/GUYER.. 02/26/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   30648831 31048834 31368799 31398660 31118596 30698457
               30458370 30098355 29848397 29588466 29568519 29958671
               30208780 30278818 30458826 30648831