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Mesoscale Discussion 230
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 010446Z - 010645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may develop in
   the next few hours over eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
   Tornadoes and very large hail are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Showers appear to be deepening across parts of eastern
   Oklahoma, in advance of strong cooling aloft and approaching the
   surface moist axis where dewpoints are in the lower 60s. Due to
   strong winds and mixing, the boundary layer remains warm with
   temperatures in the 70s and relatively weak CIN. Given extreme
   cooling aloft, lapse rates are very steep, with MLCAPE to around
   2000 J/kg. Shear is more impressive, with area VWPs indicating 0-1
   SRH in excess of 500 to 600 m2/s2. Clearly, the environment favors
   tornadic supercells, conditional on storms forming. Several CAM
   solutions indicate storms in this area. A tornado watch is likely to
   be needed soon.

   ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/01/2017


   LAT...LON   33519400 33539521 33619645 33859680 34249685 34759660
               35259634 35499586 36509336 36529261 36259242 35689243
               34699288 34239313 33859332 33519400 

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