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Mesoscale Discussion 230
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO...SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31...

   VALID 081701Z - 081800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WITH WW 31 SET TO EXPIRE AT 18Z AND A LINGERING SEVERE
   STORM OVER CNTRL MO...A POSSIBLE LOCAL EXTENSION OR REPLACEMENT
   WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN SPC AND WFO STL.

   DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL HAS PRODUCED HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
   OVER COLE COUNTY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF STRONGER INHIBITION PROVIDED
   BY A RELATIVELY WARM EML PLUME. AMIDST 40-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   LARGE BUOYANCY...THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 18Z IS THE DEGREE OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E ACROSS THE MS RIVER. 12Z
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS REMAIN
   INSISTENT ON DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA
   REGIME...BUT ARE ALREADY TOO AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO RADAR/SATELLITE.
   AS SUCH...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE DEGREE OF SHORT-TERM SEVERE
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT E OF THE MS RIVER...SUGGESTING LOCAL EXTENSION MAY
   BE APPROPRIATE IF THE CNTRL MO STORM HOLDS CHARACTER.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38649239 38889171 38909093 38769023 38348921 37928919
               37648933 37488977 37439049 37519122 37779214 37999248
               38239250 38649239 

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Page last modified: April 08, 2015
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