MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MO...WRN IL...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 260822Z - 261315Z
   
   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 IN/HR WILL SPREAD NNEWD
   FROM CNTRL MO INTO NRN MO...WRN IL AND FAR S-CNTRL/SERN IA THROUGH
   14Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LOCATED OVER AR AT 08Z WILL SHIFT
   NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THIS
   OCCURS...WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING NWWD FROM WRN KY/SRN IL INTO
   CNTRL MO/ERN KS WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO NRN MO...WRN IL AND FAR
   S-CNTRL/SERN IA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY
   RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER...MODERATE LOW/MIDLEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT JUXTAPOSED
   WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT UPPER
   JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES/FAVORABLE DYNAMIC
   COOLING FOR PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...1
   IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE PROBABLE...WITH LOCAL 2 IN/HR RATES NOT
   OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...SHORT-TERM MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO ERN MO
   AND PORTIONS OF WRN IL...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY DECREASE THE POTENTIAL
   FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THOSE AREAS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 02/26/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   LAT...LON   37969415 39619497 40789363 41179106 40558948 39408944
               38369093 37969415